Parhaat Nate Silver Podcastit (2025)

1
The Democrats Are Folding on the Shutdown 46:31

12h ago46:31

46:31

Despite a blue wave in recent state and local elections, Senate Democrats caved to Republican demands on the shutdown, giving up the health care subsidies they started the shutdown over nearly 50 days ago. Nate and Maria argue that the Democrats are squandering their momentum, and discuss the consequences for key figures like Senate Minority Leader…

1
Even Our Economy Is Gamified Now 36:00

5d ago36:00

36:00

From social media and dynamic pricing to meme stocks and AI hype, gamification has taken over our lives—and a recent op-ed argues that it’s even spread into our economy, driven by Trump. Nate and Maria discuss the psychology behind the “casino economy” and why speculation and risk are so addicting. They talk about what it means when governments, bu…

1
What Happens in Vegas...Might Tell Us Something About the US Economy 43:40

8d ago43:40

43:40

With traffic down, gambling down, and hotel prices bottoming out, everyone’s asking: Is Las Vegas dead? Nate and Maria wade into the frenzy with some real data and hard-won experience. They talk about why casinos are struggling, what this indicates for the broader economy, and why high-end steak houses are, in fact, a recession indicator. For more …

1
What to Make of the NBA Sports Betting Scandal 41:09

12d ago41:09

41:09

Last week, two federal indictments and several high-profile arrests rocked the NBA. One indictment accused defendants of sharing insider information to cheat at sports betting, and the other accused over 30 co-conspirators, including members of various mafia families, of rigging poker games. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newslett…

1
Lessons From A Marathoner (with Nicholas Thompson) 42:25

15d ago42:25

42:25

Nate and Maria sit down with the elite amateur runner Nicholas Thompson (who also happens to be the CEO of The Atlantic) to talk about his new book The Running Ground. They discuss what running can teach about productivity and fulfillment, his favorite brand of gels, and…his late-father’s brothel in Bali. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to …

1
The Canal, the Crash and the Ketamine - Pushkin's Reign of Error 44:25

19d ago44:25

44:25

We have a special episode for you today! In which Nate and Maria join their fellow Pushkin hosts to dive deep into the art of failure. Tim Harford of Cautionary Tales shares stories of minor mistakes with massive consequences. Jonathan Goldstein of Heavyweight speaks with his friend, the writer Sheila Heti about the cost of mistakes and whether we'…

1
What Democrats Should Take from No Kings Protests 45:11

22d ago45:11

45:11

Over the weekend, some 5 million people across the United States marched in ‘No Kings’ protests. Nate and Maria sit down to talk about why this matters, the psychology of protests, and how Democratic strategists can build on the momentum going forward. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silve…

1
What the Nobels Tell Us About the World Right Now 40:56

26d ago40:56

40:56

The 2025 Nobel Prizes have now been announced, and Maria convinces Nate to learn about the winners. They discuss the selection process, the economic award for research on “creative destruction,” and what prizes they should be considered for. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin …

1
Good Call/Bad Call: Bari Weiss as CBS’s New Editor-in-Chief 38:01

29d ago38:01

38:01

Last week, Paramount bought digital news site The Free Press for $150 million, and made one of its founders, Bari Weiss, the new editor-in-chief of CBS. Everyone has opinions on Weiss…and so do Nate and Maria. They debate whether Weiss has the expertise to be editor-in-chief of a TV network, discuss what her appointment says about Paramount CEO Dav…

1
What Jane Goodall Teaches Us About Outsider Thought 41:36

1M ago41:36

41:36

Pioneering primatologist and anthropologist Jane Goodall died last week at 91. Nate and Maria talk about Jane’s career path and how her research influenced the fields of both animal and human cognition. They also discuss the significance of the outsider status she held when she began her research, and what everyone can learn from outsiders. For mor…

1
With Sora 2, We’re Climbing Higher on the Dystopia Scale 44:30

1M ago44:30

44:30

Kirjoittanut Pushkin Industries

1
Sleep, Track, Don’t Multitask: How To Succeed In Online Poker 36:01

1M ago36:01

36:01

Nate and Maria discuss their favorite topic: poker! In this episode, they dive into the nuanced strategy of online poker: how to manage your schedule, how to prioritize information, and whether quantity trumps quality as you strive to improve. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulleti…

1
Will Eric Adams’s Exit Change the NYC Mayoral Election? 44:23

1M ago44:23

44:23

Eric Adams is out of the NYC mayoral race! Nate and Maria discuss his tenure as mayor, the timing of his announcement, and what this means for the remaining candidates. And — because it can be hard to remember a time before his multiple scandals and single-digit polling — they talk about the enthusiasm that once surrounded Adams, and what that arc …

1
Did the LA Clippers Take a Page from the Mob? 34:19

2M ago34:19

34:19

The NBA is investigating the LA Clippers and team owner Steve Ballmer over allegations that star player Kawhi Leonard accepted a $28 million endorsement as a way to get around the league’s salary cap. The endorsement deal was with the now-defunct sustainable banking company Aspiration—a company in which Ballmer has invested. Nate and Maria talk abo…

1
Presidents Have Tried To Censor the Media Before…and It Backfired 35:31

2M ago35:31

35:31

Disney briefly pulled Jimmy Kimmel off the air last week for comments he made about Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer, after FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened action against Disney and ABC. But this is not the first time the government has tried to censor the media: Maria walks us through a brief history of presidents trying to limit what the press say…

1
When You Come at the King: Holding Presidents to Account (with Elie Honig) 49:27

2M ago49:27

49:27

It’s our first Saturday drop! Nate and Maria host former assistant US Attorney Elie Honig to discuss his new book, a brisk history of special counsels — plagued by politics, checked by presidents, declawed under Trump’s second term — and why rescuing the office matters. Find Elie’s book here: When You Come At The King For more from Nate and Maria, …

1
Can The Center Hold After Charlie Kirk? Plus: Shutdown Strategy 35:35

2M ago35:35

35:35

Nate and Maria share their reactions to last week’s assassination of conservative organizer and activist Charlie Kirk, who died after sustaining a gunshot wound at a speaking event on a Utah campus. Then, they debate the Democrats’ strategy as a government shutdown looms — and Nate says what he would do if he were Chuck Schumer. NOTE: Risky Busines…

1
Is There Really A Crisis of Masculinity? 46:57

2M ago46:57

46:57

Tesla has offered CEO Elon Musk a package worth $1 trillion to stay at the helm of the company — if he can hit a series of very ambitious goals. All of this comes in the midst of a serious dip in performance at the company, with stock falling 16% this year (partly as a result of Musk’s controversial moves on the world stage). So this week, Nate and…

1
Determinative Decisions Before Birth: Genes and Names 45:45

2M ago45:45

45:45

Nate is on vacation this week, so Maria is joined by journalist David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene and Range. They talk about a new company that offers comprehensive genetic sequencing on embryos during the IVF process—at a high price. What are the ethics of this kind of technology? And what are the risks (and rewards) of trying to optimize y…

1
The Game Theory of Reality TV (with Survivor’s Boston Rob) 52:07

3M ago52:07

52:07

This week, Maria interviews reality TV legend Boston Rob. Rob has been on Survivor six times, and has also appeared on The Amazing Race, The Traitors, and Deal or No Deal Island. He’s a master strategist with a psychology background. He and Maria discuss how to build trust strategically in a competitive environment, how to read your opponents’ moti…

1
Where the Puck Is Going: Why Maximum Gerrymandering May Be Inevitable 39:58

3M ago39:58

39:58

As Texas embarks on a rare round of mid-decade redistricting and California threatens to answer with its own, Nate and Maria analyze the history, politics, and game theory of gerrymandering. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for pr…

1
What’s the Optimal Personality for AI? 44:30

3M ago44:30

44:30

This week Nate and Maria discuss the release of GPT-5, the latest model from OpenAI. This model promises to be faster, smarter, and more useful while also reducing hallucinations and sycophancy. It also lets users choose among different AI “personalities.” What do Nate and Maria think so far? Then, they turn to the newly inked Nvidia trade deal, wh…

1
America’s New AI Strategy 39:42

4M ago39:42

39:42

With all the frenzy last week around Jeffrey Epstein and ColdplayGate, you might have missed an important story: Trump’s new AI Action Plan. Released alongside three new executive orders on AI, the plan emphasizes deregulation, open sourcing, and “anti-woke” models in a race for industry dominance. Today, Nate and Maria get into the details and dec…

1
You Play Better When You’re Having Fun (with Leo Margets and Erik Seidel) 1:01:01

4M ago1:01:01

1:01:01

To wrap up our coverage of the World Series of Poker, we bring you a poker interview extravaganza. This year, Leo Margets became the second woman ever to make it to the Main Event final table—and the first since 1995. Nate and Maria chat with Leo about her approach to poker, why having fun helps her play better, and how she felt about her historic …

1
The Butterfly Effect in Poker. Plus: How To Think About Conspiracies. 40:11

4M ago40:11

40:11

Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s sudden about face on the Epstein Files is ruffling feathers in his usually unruffle-able base. Will he be able to convince the true believers that there is, in fact, noth…

1
Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig) 1:05:33

4M ago1:05:33

1:05:33

Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that these measures sprang from “an abundance of caution.” But what was the evidence on the necessity of keeping kids home? And, looking back, did the bene…

1
Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities 51:27

4M ago51:27

51:27

Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to co…

1
Iran: Don’t Rush To Judge A Dangerous Moment 43:19

5M ago43:19

43:19

This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s strikes on Iran. How can we understand this developing situation, without falling prey to our own biases? And when nuclear weapons are involved, how do risk calculations change? Plus, Nate and Maria recap another week at the World Series of Poker, which wouldn’t be complete without some controversy. For mor…

1
Cautionary Questions with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova 43:52

5M ago43:52

43:52

Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed? We're sharing this special episode of Cautionary Tales in which Nate and Maria make an appearance to answer listener questions with CT host Tim Harford. For a full list of …

1
Does Ranked Choice Voting Work? Plus, New AI Predictions 44:24

5M ago44:24

44:24

Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system is supposed to help a consensus candidate win…but, does it? Finally, they talk about Nate’s recent trip to the Manifest conference in Berkeley, and why they’ve become more skeptical …

1
This Year’s World Series Of Poker Is Different 42:35

5M ago42:35

42:35

Nate and Maria are back in Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker 2025. They discuss a key rule change that will have a major effect on their strategy. Then, they’re joined by a Risky Business listener who gets a crash course in tournament play. Finally, they look back on their own early days at the WSOP. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to…

1
An Elon Musk Report Card 45:56

5M ago45:56

45:56

Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer a listener question about how the US government can make better decisions. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from…

1
Why ChatGPT Sucks at Poker 50:59

6M ago50:59

50:59

ChatGPT is amazing at many things…but it can’t seem to figure out poker. Nate and Maria explain why, and talk about the implications for artificial general intelligence. Plus, they discuss Trump vs. Harvard, round two. Further Reading: Silver Bulletin: ChatGPT Is Shockingly Bad at Poker Harvard Derangement Syndrome, by Steven Pinker For more from N…

1
Motivated Reasoning in the Biden Campaign, Silicon Valley, and Beyond 44:40

6M ago44:40

44:40

We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign and Silicon Valley. Also: Conspiracy theories and the NBA draft. Further Reading: Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House Original Sin: President B…

1
What Should Colleges Do about ChatGPT? 47:14

6M ago47:14

47:14

Nate and Maria revisit their conclave predictions, and discuss Maria’s recent win in Monte Carlo. Then the talk about college students’ rampant use of ChatGPT to cheat on assignments, and how colleges and professors might be able to catch up. Further Reading: From New York Magazine: Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College For more from Nate …

1
Life After Poker (with Vanessa Selbst) 43:07

6M ago43:07

43:07

Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker and her move into the world of finance (she now works for Jane Street Capital). They also discuss why, at her first job in finance, she kept a giant bag of…

1
The Conclave, Sinners, and Negotiation Tips 39:38

7M ago39:38

39:38

The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share th…

1
The Right (And Wrong) Ways to Fight Trump 43:39

7M ago43:39

43:39

This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in the court of public opinion than tariffs were. Picking a fight with Harvard may also be good politics for the administration. So: how should Democrats, and othe…

1
Will AI Radically Change the World by 2027? 47:17

7M ago47:17

47:17

This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback h…

1
Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs 35:28

7M ago35:28

35:28

Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s latest round of tariffs. What is the strategy here, if any? What should other decision-makers – like Elon Musk or the United States’ Congress – do to intervene? And how should the average American react? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Na…

1
The Ivy League Bows to Trump, Plus Protecting Your Genetic Data and Your Time 43:29

7M ago43:29

43:29

This week – after a quick check in on their March Madness brackets – Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s showdown with the Ivy League. Should schools like Harvard and Columbia do more to stand up to the President’s demands? Then they turn to 23andMe, which has declared bankruptcy. They discuss privacy and whether it’s okay to swap your biometric data fo…

1
Group Chat Protocols, Bracket Updates, and thoughts on the WNBA 41:26

8M ago41:26

41:26

This week, Nate and Maria discuss The Atlantic’s bombshell report about how its top editor was added to a national security group chat, and get into why the most major security risk is never technology–it’s always people. Then, they give an update on their March Madness bracket contest, and try to figure out why on earth players have to wait until …

1
March Madness Bracket Extravaganza 42:03

8M ago42:03

42:03

This week, Nate and Maria talk college basketball. Nate explains how he made his recently-released March Madness model. Then, they compare their tournament brackets. Maria gets some help from Sacramento Kings GM Monte McNair, but also makes one bracket entirely based on vibes. Nate mostly sticks to his model, but makes a few surprising picks. Check…

1
China’s Best Moves, and How to React to a Dealer’s Mistake 39:20

8M ago39:20

39:20

Last week, Nate and Maria talked about the game theory of American diplomacy right now. This week, they look at it from the perspective of America’s biggest rival: China. How should China respond as the US turns away from the global stage? What new opportunities do they have? Plus, both hosts weigh in on the poker controversy surrounding a recent b…

1
How Trump is Getting the Game Theory Wrong 40:19

8M ago40:19

40:19

This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s tariffs and analyze his strategy from a game theory perspective. They get into the difference between zero-sum and cooperative games, speculate on how Trump would act in the dictator game, and discuss the rationality of revenge. Then, they talk about the reboot of the infamous Fyre Festival, and why con art…

1
Thinking Smart About Low-Probability Events 43:28

9M ago43:28

43:28

This week, Nate and Maria discuss the asteroid that had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. That risk is now closer to 0%—but, what does this example reveal about how to consider extremely costly events that are fairly unlikely to come to pass? Then, they touch on the latest World Series of Poker drama and challenge each other to a game of Roshamb…

1
Trust and Facing the Unknown (with Rachel Botsman) 42:20

9M ago42:20

42:20

This week, Maria speaks with trust expert Rachel Botsman about her new audiobook How To Trust and Be Trusted. What is trust? Why, even in the face of overwhelming evidence, do we sometimes trust the wrong people? And what can a luxury hotel teach us about how to repair a trust that’s been broken? And – for Pushkin+ subscribers – Nate and Maria answ…

1
Trump’s First Three Weeks: What Actually Matters? 41:10

9M ago41:10

41:10

Amid a maelstrom of executive orders and other presidential actions, Nate and Maria discuss best practices for staying focused on the important things. They also give their takes on what those important things are. And, they follow up on their Super Bowl prop bet – were there tears during the National Anthem? (They disagree – weigh in below.) Plus,…

1
Air Travel, Alcohol, and How to Bet On a Coin Toss 43:34

9M ago43:34

43:34

Our intuitive risk assessments can be way off–we’re too scared of hijackings, and not scared enough of crossing the street. This week, Nate and Maria discuss the real risks of plane travel, and of drinking alcohol. Then, they debate whether the sharp money is on heads or tails in the Super Bowl coin toss, and make a very serious bet about whether t…

1
Should You Learn Poker from ChatGPT? And Other AI Questions 46:51

10M ago46:51

46:51

In the wake of DeepSeek’s explosive entrance into the AI chatbot world, Nate and Maria talk AI strategy. At the national level and the personal level, what benefits does this technology actually have – and is it worth it? Plus, we tackle a question from listener Hugh about how to win big at his friendly, amateur poker night. Good luck, Hugh! For mo…

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