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Action Academy | Replace The Job You Hate With A Life You Love

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2 päivää sitten2d ago

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Ready to replace your 6-figure salary with real freedom? This is the podcast for high earners who feel stuck in jobs they’ve outgrown. If you’re asking, “How do I actually replace $10K–$20K/month so I can quit and never look back?” — welcome home. At Action Academy, we teach you how to buy small businesses and commercial real estate to create cash flow that actually replaces your job. Monday through Friday, you’ll learn from 7–9 figure entrepreneurs, real estate moguls, and acquisition pros who’ve done it — and show you how to do it too. Hosted by Brian Luebben (@brianluebben), who quit his 6-figure sales role in 2022 to build a global business while traveling the world. If you're a high-income earner ready to become a high-impact entrepreneur, this show is your playbook. Subscribe now and start your path to freedom — or keep pretending your job will get better someday....

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WEEKLY MONETARY, ECONOMIC, GEOPOLITICAL NEWS AND EVENTS

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WEEKLY MONETARY, ECONOMIC, GEOPOLITICAL NEWS AND EVENTS

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Short-Term Retrace, Long-Term Trend 18:17

3 päivää sitten18:17

Toista Myöhemmin

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18:17

Gold reached a new all-time high, finally hitting $3,500 as predicted. Silver gained ground, recovering from recent losses, while other metals remained flat. Let’s take a look at where the prices of precious metals stand as of Wednesday, April 23: The price of gold is up around 2% as of this recording. Intraweek, gold reached a new high at $3,500. That’s an 8% rise intraweek, and a 17% total increase since April 8. The price of silver is up 4.09% to $33.60, recovering most of what it lost following the post-tariff dropoff. The price of platinum is up 1% to $964 as of recording — that’s mostly flat week over week. The price of palladium is down 3% to $934, a little bit of a switch from the one-to-one race that it has been in with platinum. Moving over to the paper markets… The S&P 500 is up only 0.7% to 5,371, moving sideways week over week. The dollar index is flat around $100 as of recording this week. This is after it was down about 2% intraweek, which is a significant drop. Seasonal Moves in Gold It is well known among precious metals experts that gold is more popular in certain seasons — and spring is one of them. So it’s no surprise that the price of gold is on the rise this month. But what’s unusual is the rapid, short-term rise that we’ve seen in the price of gold. Since the 2024 election, the price of gold has shot up $1,000. And since it hit a bottom at $1,625 in November 2022, it has more than doubled its price in just 2.5 years. Looking forward, summer is usually a time when gold will pull back a bit. Since gold had such a strong run up this spring, we suspect that there will be a small retracement in the near future. The first pullback we might see would be somewhere around the previous top of $3,150 prior to the exaggerated push up. And then the secondary pull back could be more along the 6 18 short term fib that lines up with other levels as well as being resistance and support — which is right around $2,940. Those are two really good stair steps. Ratio Trade Opportunity Because gold had that brief melt up, it drove up the gold to silver ratio to 105 to one. This is just one of three times in our lifetimes that we’ve seen the ratio pop over 100. The first one was in the early 1990s and the second time was during the 2020 pandemic. This brief pop up was a great opportunity to move some gold into silver if you were able to take advantage of it in time. But don’t feel like you missed out on trading some gold for silver on this brief high. Any gold to silver ratio number that’s in the high nineties is still favoring silver, and there’s a good chance that could happen again in the near term. Get Started Today Now is a great time to discover how precious metals can support your investment goals. One of our McAlvany financial advisors will happily speak with you about your personal objectives and show you how to start adding ounces to your portfolio. Just give the team a call at (800) 525-9556 to get a complimentary portfolio review.…

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Dollar Dangerously Near A Breakpoint 28:30

4 päivää sitten28:30

28:30

Outflows Out Of U.S. Assets Going Into Gold Goldman Sachs Increases Gold Price Prediction China Increases Gold Imports On High "So this is why I would say equities are a sideshow, the weakness in equities, the current compression across the indices. Relative to the bond market and currency market, that's what it is. It's a sideshow. The dollar's year-to-date decline versus the euro is only 9.2%. The US Treasury market, if you're looking at the 20-year Treasury, only lower by 2% year-to-date. These markets are actually where the real concern lies. And it's not because it's bigger numbers, but it's because it's a much bigger market." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to The McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David each morning I walk outside and I look at the mountains, and I eat my oatmeal, just stand and think. And as I was doing that I started to think about what's going on with the dollar right now, and the possibility of worldwide inflation, high inflation, I don't want to say necessarily hyperinflation, but I was thinking what does it look like when the world's reserve currency starts to melt down? David: We've referenced Stephen Miran's paper, which he wrote back in November of last year. I think we even put it in the show notes a number of weeks ago. And it's important to see the game plan that is feeding the Trump administration's idea of reindustrialization. Implicit to the paper is devaluation of the dollar. There's no concern with that. It's an objective which is clear. They're comfortable with it, but it does have implications for overseas investors. It does have implications for US investors with dollar assets. Kevin: The other day I was talking to my wife and I said gold topping $3,500 an ounce at one point here in the last few hours, that basically is saying what is going to happen to the prices of everything else. Gold is signaling something. Last night, Dave, when we sat and had our Talisker, it's getting pretty expensive to sit and have our Talisker, it used to be more affordable. But I'm thinking that gold is signaling the increase of our Monday nights. David: That's right. That's right. Kevin: Yeah. So gold is signaling the increase in our Talisker on Monday nights. But the volatility right now, for so long we were falling asleep with the VIX, the volatility index, that's not the case now. David: No, and some would even ask: the equity volatility, is that important, is that something of a sideshow? And we would say, in fact it is a sideshow, but we'll work towards that conclusion. Investors are in a volatility meat grinder again. They've got to contemplate the upside of risk assets, and perhaps they're reconsidering what downside looks like as well. From one Truth Social post to the next, markets are subject to surprise after surprise after surprise. So what is a healthy correction? What is a full-blown bear market? And to what degree do tariff uncertainties shape the global investor’s motivation to own US assets, US denominated assets of any kind? It's this question: to stay or go? Double-digit declines in the largest stock indices are commonplace. It's the Russell 2000, the Dow transports, NASDAQ, high-flying sectors like semiconductors, off 23%; the Mag-7 on an equal weighted basis, now off over 25% year to date. And of course, if you're looking for a little bit more fun and entertainment, the five times Mag-7 ETF is off 89% year to date, 92% from its all-time highs in December of last year. So the gods of the marketplace give and take away. Leverage is a force multiplier, and there's a lot of it spread across asset classes. Kevin: You and I both ride mountain bikes. My son just rebuilt the shock on the rear part of the bike. When we lose our shock absorption, we really feel the bumps. And if you think about it, the Federal Reserve and just the policy up to this point has been like a shock absorber,…

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Momentum in Precious Metals 25:44

10 päivää sitten25:44

25:44

Gold sees a massive surge this week, climbing all the way up to $3,343. Silver also saw a 5% rise to $32.70, while platinum and palladium saw some modest gains. Alongside the US dollar’s weakened performance and high global demand for gold, the momentum behind gold continues to grow and the likelihood of higher prices increases. Thanks for listening. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on Wednesday, April 16: The price of gold is up 8% to $3338, after its massive surge over the past week. The price of silver is up 5.5% to $32.70, starting to look healthier after a big dropoff last week. The price of platinum is up 4.6% to $960 as of recording. Platinum seems hard stuck between about $950 and $1,000 and continues to remain there. The price of palladium is up 7% to $972, surpassing platinum by a small amount in their neck-and-neck race. Metals Momentum On Tuesday, India announced that they want to use a trade surplus to buy gold, silver, and oil from the United States, and that caused a moonshot for gold in the early morning hours. President Trump is trying to initiate an industrial revolution, and that's when we expect to see platinum finally break north of $1,000 per ounce. So keep an eye on these industrial metals. It is still early in the game. Dollar vs Gold When you’re a gold investor, it’s hard to remember how you used to think about investing before you purchased precious metals. But many investors find an asset like gold to be out of their comfort zone. They’re used to looking at how the stock market performs and how many dollars they have in the bank. Gold is an allocation. It can be seen as insurance for the rest of your money or an allocation as capital to preserve your purchasing power as the dollar gets eroded by inflation. And there’s no better illustration of gold’s power than looking at this chart showing the purchasing power of the dollar over the last 100 years: As you can see, the price of gold is the mirror image or the inverse relationship of this US dollar purchasing power. Ratio Trade Opportunity The gold-to-silver ratio hit a rare high of 101, indicating a rare chance for silver investors to take advantage of. The gold to silver ratio has fluctuated between 99 and 101 for weeks. This week, the ratio is back to 101 today. The last time we saw a significant shift in the gold to silver ratio was at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. And because there is still little western demand for gold and silver right now, premiums are very low. So if you’ve been thinking about making a ratio trade, now is the time to get in touch with your McAlvany Precious Metals advisor. Add Gold Ounces Today Call us at (800) 525-9556 so we can speak with you individually and walk through your own portfolio. Our team of experts can help you understand the whys and the hows with acquiring gold.…

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Tactical Short 1st Quarter 2025 Recap 2:00:35

10 päivää sitten2:00:35

2:00:35

Decades of Inflationism Home to Roost MWM Q1 2025 Tactical Short Conference Call April 17, 2024 David: All right, let's begin. Good afternoon. We are going to start the call today with performance, look at market insights, and then have Q&A as our finale. This is for first quarter 2025, conference call for Tactical Short, “Decades of Inflationism Home to Roost.” We're looking forward to the questions that have been reserved for the end of the call, and I'm grateful for each of them, both the level of engagement and the depth of curiosity. We're also excited to share insights and perspectives with you today, and I would just encourage you to engage broadly. You need not agree with every point in order to benefit from the totality of insights. We are in a fast changing world, and we continue to adjust our thinking to the circumstances that emerge. [Unclear] a routine look at our thinking. I would encourage you to always engage on a Saturday with Credit Bubble Bulletin, which Doug's been writing for a long, long time. And it is the best chronicling of how we arrived at this point in time. It gives you a comprehensive look at credit markets and the influence that they have within the broader financial markets. I would also encourage you to engage with a piece that we put out also on Saturdays called Hard Asset Insights, perspective on the markets from one of our colleagues, as well as my podcast on Wednesdays now and it's 18th year. A good way for you to keep up with our thinking on other macro issues that relate ultimately to your financial decision making. So again, thank you for participating in our first quarter 2025 recap conference call. As always, thank you to our valued account holders. We so greatly value our client relationships. With first time listeners on today's call, I'll begin with some general information for those who are unfamiliar with Tactical Short, and of course you can find more detailed information available at mwealthm.com/tacticalshort. The objective. The objective of Tactical Short is to provide a professionally managed product that reduces overall risk in a client's total investment portfolio, while also providing downside protection in a global market backdrop with extraordinary uncertainty and extreme risk. The strategy is designed for separately managed accounts. Separately managed accounts allow for a very investor friendly, full transparency, flexibility, reasonable fees, no lockups, it's perfect for providing all of those things. We have the flexibility to short stocks and ETFs, and our plan has been, on occasion, to buy liquid listed put options as well. Shorting entails a unique set of risks. This is where we are set apart from our competitors, by our analytical framework and our uncompromising focus on identifying and managing risk. Our Tactical Short strategy in the quarter with short exposure targeted at 80%. The target was boosted 200 basis points to 82% in early March, the highest in the history of the strategy. Focused on the challenging backdrop for managing short exposure, a short in the S&P 500 ETF, the SPY, remained the default position for what we regard as a very high risk environment. Giving an update on performance, Tactical Short accounts after fees returned 4.06% during Q1. The S&P 500 returned a negative 4.28%, so for the quarter Tactical Short accounts returned 95% of the S&P 500's negative return. As for one year performance, Tactical Short after fees returned a negative 5.14 versus the 8.23 return for the S&P 500, losing 62% of the S&P's positive return. We regularly track Tactical Short performance versus three actively managed short fund competitors. First, the Grizzly Short Fund, which returned 5.16% during Q1, and over the past year Grizzly has returned a negative 0.52, a half a percent. Ranger Equity Bear returned 9%, 9.06 for the quarter, with a negative 1.89 for the one-year return. And Federated Prudent Bear returned 5.631,…

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Why The United States Always Reinvents Itself 58:35

11 päivää sitten58:35

58:35

This Week’s Guest: George FriedmanGeorge Friedman is one of the most respected voices in geopolitical strategy today. As the founder of both Stratfor and Geopolitical Futures, his work has shaped how analysts and leaders understand the long-term forces driving global events. With decades of experience forecasting international conflicts, economic trends, and national realignments, Friedman brings deep historical insight to the current moment. About His Book – The Storm Before the CalmIn The Storm Before the Calm, Friedman lays out a compelling case that America’s current turmoil is part of a larger, predictable pattern. He identifies two ongoing cycles in U.S. history—an 80-year institutional cycle and a 50-year socio-economic cycle—that are converging in the 2020s. According to Friedman, periods of instability like this one are not signs of collapse, but of renewal. The book explores how these internal shifts, while painful, ultimately lead to reinvention and long-term resilience. Special Offer for Our AudienceGeorge and his team are offering our listeners an exclusive opportunity to subscribe to Geopolitical Futures, his platform for in-depth geopolitical analysis. Subscribers get access to forecasts, strategic briefings, and special reports from one of the most experienced teams in the business.Sign up here: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/subscribe/?utm_source=macalvany In This Episode: Why the United States Always Reinvents Itself George Friedman on the core ideas behind The Storm Before the Calm How to understand the current crisis through the lens of historical cycles What a “new model” of the world might look like Where George sees the U.S. headed after this period of upheaval This conversation offers rare clarity in a noisy time. If you're looking for perspective that goes deeper than headlines and polling data, don't miss this one. Also, Click Here to register for the Tactical Short 1st Quarter 2025 Recap call, this Thursday - “Decades of Inflationism Home to Roost” “The United States realized that the foundation of its previous era, the Cold War, and its relationship with the world was over, and it proceeded inevitably. And whoever was president--it's an impersonal process--would reconsider his relationship with Europe, would reconsider his relationship with China, would reconsider all relationships, plus attack the social crisis that foreign country and the imminent but not yet ready economic crisis. This becomes a problem of engineering, not of geopolitics, so to speak. How do you engineer this?” --George Friedman * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, I really look forward to these talks when you talk to George Friedman. I'll never forget, it probably was 10, 11 years ago that to George Friedman, he said Russia is going to have to go into Ukraine. And he said that's probably going to happen in the next five years. And I remember thinking, gosh, that's a pretty bold statement. Boy, it struck me when it happened. David: Well, we have a lot to talk about in terms of the financial markets, and we have to put that on hold for a moment. Bringing into focus some of the geopolitical issues that are in play, I think is worth doing. And so today George Friedman will be with us to do that. Later this week, Doug Noland and I will hold our quarterly conference call for our Tactical Short product, the events of recent weeks and the pressures which have emerged since the beginning of the year make this call a requirement for anyone seeking insight and understanding. Doug and I will not agree on all matters relating to the current administration, which in no way detracts from the insights we'll be discussing on Thursday in the financial markets. In fact, today's conversation with George Friedman may bring an important overlay to that analysis.…

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Navigating a Shaky Market 20:54

17 päivää sitten20:54

20:54

Markets remain in flux this week, with many sudden movements and short-term charts giving little insight. Silver, platinum, palladium, and copper all see steep declines compared to gold’s continued strong performance. This week, we focus on the broader scope this week and investigate more long-term planning for your investment portfolio. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of April 9: The price of gold is down about 1.5%, but that’s after a steep decline of 6.5% intraweek. Gold is looking strong right now on a strong rebound. The price of silver is down 10.75% to $30.80. However, it is rebounding from its intraweek low of 17% down from its peak. The price of platinum is down 9% to $916 as of recording, but this is after plunging 14.5% since our last recording. Platinum was already on a decline from early February, down as much as 17% at one point. The price of palladium is down 9.5% to $905. It was down about 13% at one point. The price of copper is down 16%, sitting at $4.40. While it’s off its previous high, copper was down 23% at one point. Moving over to looking at the paper markets… The S&P 500 is down about 11%, sitting at 5,336 off of its February all-time high. However, it was down 21% at one point. Dow Transportation Average is down 30% from Nov 25 to April 9, lowest valuation since October 2022 and breaking below a significant support level. Debt Watch If you look at the big picture, the market gyration seems to be the main event. But to quote our colleague and portfolio manager at McAlvany Wealth Management, Doug Nolan, “The stocks are just the side show. The main event you need to watch is the 10-year Treasury market.” Indeed, the US will need to refinance $9.2 trillion worth of Treasuries between now and June 2025 — just a few months away. While there’s hope for increased revenue from tariffs, refinancing the sheer volume of paper entering the market will be quite the challenge. So if you think the markets have been volatile, this is just the beginning of more of the same (and potentially worse) to come. The 10-year Treasury yield, which had been rising as the interest rates had been rising for the last couple of years, took a dip for the first couple months of 2025. This year, it declined almost 19%, from 4.8 to about 3.9. President Trump has been begging the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates again, but we're not necessarily seeing that. But over the last few days, the 10 year Treasury yield has jumped about 11.5%, back up to around 4.3% And with significant rollover coming, it's very likely we're going to see those treasury yields continue to climb. Liquidity may become an issue here. Protection from Volatility While all of the industrial metals across the boards seem to be declining, gold is holding pretty steady, like it typically does in an emergency. Now is a critical time to reanalyze your investment plans and to take advantage of current market moves. We’re Here to Help McAlvany’s team of advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…

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Bye Bye Bretton Woods 38:44

18 päivää sitten38:44

38:44

This week’s McAlvany Weekly Commentary covers the shifting global financial landscape through the lens of tariffs, gold’s historic surge, and structural market volatility. David walks through the implications of what may be the end of the Bretton Woods era as we’ve known it, and why investors should be paying close attention to the signals coming from both financial markets and real assets. We also highlight David’s new white paper, a timely analysis of gold’s breakout to all-time highs and what it may be telegraphing about the future of currency stability, capital flows, and global trade. Click here to read David’s latest white paper on gold’s record highs, the unraveling of Bretton Woods, and what it means for your portfolio.Read the full paper → Two featured charts this week provide deeper context: S&P Historical Composite: Secular Highs and LowsA look at more than 150 years of inflation-adjusted S&P 500 performance. With the index now 398% above its 2009 low, this chart raises important questions about valuation, cycle exhaustion, and what comes next. Treasury to Gold Ratio – Gold PreferredThis chart tracks the long-term relationship between gold and long-dated U.S. Treasuries. The recent surge illustrates a major shift in capital preference toward hard assets—an essential dynamic to understand in the current environment. David also discusses market behavior over the past week, including key differences between asset classes, how forced liquidations are impacting prices, and why this environment reminds him of the 2008 deleveraging cycle—only with deeper, more systemic undercurrents. "Gold has been signaling for a number of years that we are at a very important historical inflection point. Gold surpassed a 25% return last year, rose over 19% in the first quarter of this year, and it's signaling structural changes are occurring. Smart money has been positioning ahead of that." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I can't keep things straight. I've been listening to clips from Pelosi and she's been talking about the need for tariffs, but this goes back to the 1990s. I think Schumer said some things. Obama obviously was very, very vocal. I mean, what gives, are they no longer saying the same things or driving Teslas anymore? David: Well, clearly the market is shocked by the extent to which tariffs were introduced last week. And of course the response from the Chinese on Friday didn't help things because it suggests that we've got a war on our hands, not just a slap on the wrist from the US administration for a variety of our trade partners. But you go back through the clips with Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders from 2005 to 2019, they all advocated for massive tariffs, particularly with China, and their current condescension and critique of the president's policies are, in point of fact, disingenuous lies. They misrepresent what they have strongly advocated for over the decades, a better deal for the middle class and working-class families. The left objected to many of the concessions given to our trade partners during the recent decades of globalization flourishing, and now Trump is singing from their song sheet, and the left has to object because it's Trump. Kevin: And let's just face it, Dave. I mean, we've done this commentary now, what is it? 17 years. The economy and the financial world has just gotten more bloated and more bloated and more bloated. It had to correct at some point. So I don't know that the tariffs have to be blamed for everything, do they? David: Well, I think it's important to draw a strong line of distinction between the economic goals, the economic outcomes of the tariff regime and over-leveraged, overvalued financial market because that bubble is in search of a pin. The financial bubble was going to burst. Now, you have a source of uncertainty that acts like t...…

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Tariffs, Gold, & Economic Shifts 23:42

24 päivää sitten23:42

23:42

This week we review the strong gains seen in precious metals over the first quarter against the struggling equities market. Gold’s increases follow a strong movement from central banks and hedges to repatriate money to cover weak equities markets. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on April 2: The price of gold is down 3.5% to $3125 from a week earlier. The price of silver is up about 0.5% from our recording last week to $33.80. Platinum is up about 1% to $975 an ounce. Palladium is up 1.5% to $978 per ounce. Copper is down about 3.5% to $5.01 this week. Looking at the equities markets, which are mostly down this week… The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% at 5670. There was an intraday lowest price in the S&P since September. The DJIA is also down about 0.5% to 42,200. It also hit its September lows, but it did that about a week ago. The Dow Transports rose up just under 1% to around 15,000. And of course, we did record this before the tariff day announcements happened, so we expect to see even more volatility in the coming days. Q1 Metals Performance Precious metals showed outstanding performance in the first quarter of 2025. Gold is up 19% for the quarter, and silver gained 17%. Platinum gained 8%, while palladium increased 5% for the quarter. We would happily take this kind of performance in any quarter. That’s the great news for precious metals investors — they’re seeing great appreciation of their holdings. However, it also means that consumers are getting squeezed at the grocery store and gas pump. Silver Opportunity If gold is looking too pricey these days, you can start building your gold reserve by stacking ounces of silver and eventually making a ratio trade between gold and silver when the time is right. Now is the perfect time to add more silver ounces to get in before silver has its own run up. Silver is still undervalued, and it has a lot of upside potential. And now, silver is starting to play catch up. Looking at the silver chart, you can see that silver has been moving up in a stair-step pattern since the end of February. Silver has gone from $28 to $33 per ounce since then. Now, it looks like it will soon reach $35, and that’s where it could meet some resistance. As long as the gold to silver ratio remains in the 70 - 90 to one range, our clients will likely add more silver ounces to their portfolios. The trick is to just be patient and hold the silver until the ratio swings in favor of gold. Update Your Metals Strategy Are you considering adding more silver or gold ounces to your portfolio? How much should you own? The McAlvany advisor team is here to help guide you. With decades of experience in precious metals investing, they are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556 Markets face uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and new tariffs. Thanks for listening.…

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Happy Liberation Day!? 40:01

25 päivää sitten40:01

40:01

5 More Stealth Bombers Moved To The Middle East S&P Down 4.6% QTR, Gold Up 19% QTR DOW/Gold Ratio Removes Emotion From Allocation Decisions "Months ago, this is what we were talking about. The leaders out of the 2022 decline, the ones that have recovered fastest, there was a narrative supporting that recovery through '23 and 2024: tech-dominant, AI-dominant, crypto-dominant. And they are now the leaders on the downside. In speaking with Wall Street firms, there is a hope that the worst is behind us already, and I'm not so sure." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Actually, Dave, I should say welcome to Liberation Day, American Liberation Day. David: There we go. We'll see what we're being liberated from and what the cost of liberation is. In every battle, there's collateral damage. Let's see what that looks like. Kevin: Well, gold, over 3,000, over 3,100 is like, all right, well, then there is a cost to liberation. David: Yeah. Spot gold traded to $3,145 to close out the month of March, and of course, closing out the quarter. The latest figures on investor interest, which had turned higher in February—of course that was following weak purchases in December and January—they were consistently high on the demand side in the first three weeks of March as well. So, full March numbers are still pending tabulation. February, as we mentioned, slight revision to what I said last week, 72 tons of ETF investor demand in North America. Again, first couple of weeks of March, 72 tons. First three weeks of March, this time stretched globally with one single day seeing 23.7 tons of demand. For March, it was Europe pulling the gold market higher. Asia, North America, demand was softer. The critical factors on investor minds, here we are this week—any surprise?—geopolitics, trade wars, barely separable. So, quarter-end gains in precious metals-related shares helped to push our returns in the asset management side to double digits. Hard assets in general, they're working in contrast to financial assets, which remain under pressure. So, we expect tempering of that uptrend. We love it, but all good things do come to a pause, at least, but only a short respite. Hard assets are to date not succumbing to pressure in equities. Let's see if they can stand up to deleveraging the way they already have stood up and outperformed broad market derisking. Kevin: I was thinking about it the other day, Dave, what if you had to tell a story and speak to any culture going back thousands of years? You'd have to simplify. You'd have to simplify the language and bring up things that they would recognize. Gold, the gold story, you could tell the gold/uncertainty story going back 4,000 years. I mean, the old Sumerian and Babylonian writings were weighing the price of things relative to gold, and a lot of times it had to do with uncertainty. David: Well, absolutely. Whether it was in ancient Lydia, fast-forward to more contemporary, Florence or even post-World War II, what does the world monetary system look like and do we use gold? Do we not use gold? Uncertainty reigns. And the feelings of investor concern, I think they're more acute coming into Liberation Day, April 2nd. Market behavior, it feels a little bit like this: A punted football just getting ready to hit the ground. The bounce could be relief. There's rallies in risk assets, a correction in gold, possible outcomes. But on the other hand, trade tensions ease. And those are, of course, possible outcomes if you have trade tensions which ease. But the flip side is also true. Equity indices are right now on a knife's edge. They've been trading below the 200-day moving average. This is the NDX, this is the S&P, this is the Dow, rallying back to test those numbers from below, and uniformly failing to muster enough energy to retake those technical thresholds.…

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Debt Crisis Looms 16:53

4 weeks sitten16:53

16:53

Precious metals markets remain relatively flat this week, while gold takes a minor step back down following its recent climb. Copper is the star of the show this week, reaching a new all-time high and seeing a 10% increase over the last 10 days. The S&P and USD make a small rebound, following weeks of poor performance. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 26: The price of gold is down 1% to $3015 from a week earlier. The price of silver is flat from our recording last week to $33.75. Platinum is down 3.5% to $965 an ounce. It has taken the biggest decline over the week. Palladium is up slightly, around 1% to $964 per ounce. Looking over at the paper markets, which are bouncing up slightly from a recent correction… The S&P 500 bounced up 1.2% to 5,666, a small bounce up after a recent 11% decline. The dollar index also bounced up 1% to $104.05. Dr. Copper Reaches New High The price of copper reached a new highest price ever, pushing above $5.32 early Wednesday. It had a 10% rise within the last week. Looking at its longer-term performance, copper has been in a rising, compressing channel since 2020. It had a slightly higher high in May 2024, and it reached its new high this week. As we’ve said before, the shiny metal is commonly called Dr. Copper because it tends to lead other industrial resources — as well as precious metals, to some extent. When copper becomes more expensive, it tends to indicate that inflation is on the rise. Some of copper’s rise could certainly be due to this massive tariff discussion, as well as its effect on consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence Declines Following years of a government stimulated economy, markets are now entering a detox period. Treasury Secretary Bessette has said that we need to expect a detox period, and since the election, there has been the beginning of belt tightening. This has also led to the lowest consumer confidence score seen since January 2021. The most recent report showed consumer confidence dropping to 92.9 from 100 in February. Market expectations were that consumer confidence would drop to 94. And while the markets may be headed into more belt tightening and recession, smart investors know to look at where the big money is betting — and right now, that’s in real, physical gold. Add Gold to Your Portfolio Working with an expert in precious metals will help you find the best buying opportunities for adding more gold to your portfolio. If you haven’t had a complimentary meeting with an advisor at McAlvany Precious Metals to talk through your financial objectives, now is a great time to start. Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…

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Gold Signals A Reset 33:23

5 weeks sitten33:23

33:23

Bessent: "End Intox With Detox" Anxiety High With Uncertainty Of New Rules Personality Test Identifies Trump With Churchill, LBJ, Castro, & Jack Nicholson "We may or may not be able to grow our way out, but the efforts to shrink the scope of expenditures and drive economic growth via economic expansion instead of government expansion—two very different means of driving the economy—that's being put in motion in one place on the planet today. One place only. The USA. It's something like a corporate turnaround. First, manage your outflows and cut all unnecessary spending. Then drive growth in the areas you have the greatest advantage, building back with a much reduced budget. Turnaround specialists are rarely loved within the organization that has ossified and is in the process of being restructured, but that process can be a matter of survival." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, we just met with Morgan Lewis, and he had some interesting statistics to talk about. Are we possibly going to go into a recession? I hate to say, my mind wandered. I mean it was very interesting listening to the statistics coming out of all the economic sources. But I started thinking of the chicken coop meter. I live on five acres and we used to run a chicken coop. We don't now, but every neighbor around me, I was thinking about it while he was talking. Every neighbor around me has started a chicken coop in the last year or two. I hear roosters all around me, and I was thinking, I wonder, yeah, could that be the price of eggs or do you think maybe that's a precursor to people realizing things are going to get tight? David: Yeah, it is obviously partially an egg issue or they just don't want to pay 12 bucks for a dozen, a dollar apiece. All of a sudden your cheap protein source has gone the way of the dodo bird. Well, yeah, I think there is also an adjustment to what may be harder times. This is where we've often talked about a two-tiered economy and what economists will sometimes describe as a K-shaped economy where some are doing very well. One of the legs of the K goes up and to the right and is fine, and the other leg goes down. And I think the middle class, the lower middle class has been under pressure for some time in the continuation of the inflation trend, whether it's in price of a dozen eggs or a gallon of milk, or even just a marginal 2% increase off of a base level which was much, much lower four or five years ago. It's compounded negatively, and their income is not keeping up. Kevin: Well, and Morgan was bringing out, he said, you know, the gold thesis that we've been talking about for so long may really showing itself right now because he quoted Scott Bessent, who was being interviewed on Meet the Press, and Meet the press basically said, "Okay, this period of detox, are we going to go into a recession?" And Scott was like, "I've taught on this and we were going to have a crisis anyway." David: And we may have a crisis, Kevin: We may have a crisis. David: But here's what's different. We're taking steps to do something different versus what we have done in the past, which is intox over and over again in response to crisis after crisis. We've seen credit explode higher as a way to save the system. And we've gotten to a level that that is not in any way sustainable, and we cannot go that way again. So detox versus intox, that is the only way forward. Kevin: So even last year before we knew Trump was going to be president, before Scott Bessent was in— Last year at this time, Dave, our conversation on gold was about price moves. And I'm not going to say that we want to say that we predict prices. I can't at all. But the things you were saying about gold and the price of gold a year ago, and then today, over the last few months, let's go over that because I think it's important to go back and say, "All right,…

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Metals Shine While Stocks Struggle 20:34

5 weeks sitten20:34

20:34

Gold surged 4% since last week, while silver has risen 1.6%, maintaining a gold-to-silver ratio near 90:1. Platinum and palladium also saw gains, up 1.7% and 1%, respectively. Meanwhile, the stock market remains under pressure, climbing back up in small increments, but all staying below their 200-day moving averages. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 19: The price of gold is up 4% to $3046 from a week earlier. Gold is starting to look a little bit parabolic. The price of silver is up 1.6% from our recording last week to $33.80. As we're recording, we're flirting with that 90 to one gold to silver ratio. Platinum is up 1.7% to $1,005 an ounce. and a little bit behind it. Palladium is up about 0.85% to $955 per ounce, just about flat from a week earlier. Looking at the paper markets, which are still in correction territory and about 9% from where they topped… The DJIA is up 1.6% sitting just under 42,000. The S&P 500 is up 1.5% to 5,680, a small bounce up from last week. The NASDAQ is up about 0.2% to 19,580 — pretty much flat from a week earlier. Now all three of those paper markets have been sitting below their 200-day moving average now for about the last week or so. The dollar index is sitting flat around $103.05 after falling off a cliff over the last week or two. Going Long on Gold As we discussed a few weeks ago, the commitment of traders report shows more of the institutional investors betting long on gold. There are about 215,000 long contracts compared to about 33,000 short. So at least as of last week, the long contracts keep flowing. Institutional investors are repatriating gold from abroad and unwinding their short positions. The gold carry trade has been circling about the precious metals industry for 25 years as a mechanism to borrow gold at a very cheap rate and use the proceeds to invest in whatever the institution wanted to, and then keeping the price of gold low, replacing it at the end of the year or end of the contract at a cheaper price. Well, that's not working right now. Institutions are leading this short covering rally. It's not the retail investor driving into the gold market. Most of the retail customers are enjoying the direction the country is in right now. More broadly, there is a paradigm shift happening with the markets. The new administration is lending credence to the gold market by talking about it for the first time in 40 years, giving it significance rather than just trying to minimize its significance. Tariffs Add Pressure to Equities The mainstream media continues to attack the economy, raising red flags about tariffs and the trade war concerns, and the expectations for continuing inflation. At Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, Chairman Powell got a little political, indicating that they would withhold any cuts because they're uncertain about the effect tariffs would have on driving inflation higher. Main Street feels like the economy is great. I don't think that Main Street feels like the economy is terrible, but they may not feel secure that it is great. And the president’s focus is on making Main Street USA great. The risk to that could be that the equities go beyond the recent correction into bearish territory or a recession. The Latest Gold Opportunity Right now, you can buy certified 100-year-old old Saints and Liberties — MS 62, MS 63, MS 64 — for less money per coin than Gold Eagles right now. The prices on these Saints and Liberties have gone up to two or three times the price of gold in the past. But now you can get them for less than the price of a gold bullion coin. We have never seen this happen. If you’re ready to add more real gold ounces to your portfolio, please give McAlvany a call. You can call us at (800) 525-9556, and one of our trusted advisors will help you get started.…

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Gold At Triple-Triple Zero 37:56

6 weeks sitten37:56

37:56

US Dollar Down 27.4% VS Gold Over 12 Months Hard Asset Stocks Clearly Outperforming Bond Index How To Multiply Stock Holdings With DOW/Gold Ratio "I think we are entering a new phase in the metals market. Many investors who up to this point have never owned the metals, they're the ones who are looking and saying, "I think we have an allocation gap. I think we don't own any and we should own some." So going from not a dollar's worth, not a single gram of gold in their portfolio, new allocators are entering the fray with a fresh set of eyes and a motivation to own gold that didn't exist for them before 2025." --David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany. Well, Monday, Dave, I remembered something back from the mid-1990s. I was asked to be a guest at the New York Mercantile Exchange. This was in the World Trade Center at the time, the original World Trade Centers. And I remember standing outside the gold pit. You know, the pits there. Most of the oil was traded in the various pits at the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. I was standing right outside of the gold pit when gold happened to be 399 that day, $399 an ounce. And these guys, you can imagine the pits, these guys stand in a circle, they get a phone call. Somebody says, "Go ahead and sell a contract." One of the traders came by and he offered his hand. They put their palm forward when they're trying to sell something. And he put his hand forward and he was saying, "Augie at aught. Augie at aught." And I was like, what does that mean, Augie at aught? Well, he was trying to sell an August contract for gold at $400. These traders who were standing there, they were like, "Yeah, no, I'm not going to be the guy who buys Augie at aught. I'm not going to be the guy who breaks 400." But Monday, we see triple, triple aught. $3,000 gold, Dave. This is the first time in anybody's lifetime. David: Yeah, a close above 3,000 is pretty significant, and it appears we'll get a multi-day close above 3,000. And so there's some interesting dynamics within the gold market. Of course, very interesting dynamics across the broader financial landscape. And budget numbers are in, February budget deficit numbers are in, and we added another $307 billion to the debt dumpster fire. Kevin: Wow. David: But it was under expectations. They expected 308, so 307, I mean, it seems like a huge win. That brings us to 1.15 trillion for the first five months of the fiscal year. Kevin: Wow. David: While we may not continue at that average annual rate of 230 billion monthly, we are on that theoretical course for 2.76 trillion for the full fiscal year. And of course, that's if the last seven months look like the first five. Bessent has his work cut out for him. If we land a recession in 2025, okay, 2.5, $3 trillion deficit, I think that's a given. A nasty recession would tilt the number towards 4 trillion. That's not politics. This is math. So the current trend for yields in the bond market, US Treasuries in particular, are lower, and that's in large part because of the stress in the equities markets, people looking for safe havens. But that could reverse by year-end should the fixed-income vigilantes get excitable. Kevin: So the question always is, how long can we continue to do this? How long can we continue to borrow this kind of money? David: Yeah. Big questions remain. We are at the end of the major credit cycle. Government finance has come to dominate the credit system. What do the markets—particularly the bond markets—look like when air leaks from the granddaddy of all bubbles, the government debt bubble? Kevin: Yeah, and I'm wondering if even the American doesn't ask that question, if it's not the Chinese right now asking that question. David: Yeah. Well, speaking of exciting, for the month of February, the People's Bank of China added a modest five...…

1
Flight to Safety Begins 24:23

6 weeks sitten24:23

24:23

Precious metals make a strong showing this week with gold back above the $2900 level. The US dollar continues its downwards trend, dropping 3% over the last week. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 12: The price of gold is up about 0.5% at $2,936. It did have a couple percent movement down and then back up in between recordings. The price of silver is up about 4% over the last week, sitting at $33.22 Platinum up about 2.5%, sitting at $990, and just inching towards that thousand dollars mark again. Palladium is up about 3% at $946, showing a little strength in its own right as well. Meanwhile in the paper markets… The US dollar is down another 3% over the last week to $103.05. So the dollar remains in free fall now for the last couple of weeks, and it looks like it's a dragon. The S&P 500 is down 7% to 5,577, now down over 10%. The Dow Industrials is down 4.5% to 41,960, and from top to bottom down about 9%. The Dow Transportation Index is down 5.3% to around 14,600, and it has declined 18% since reaching a high in November 2024. The NASDAQ was down 3% at 19,590 for the week, and down about 14% off highs in February. Market Flight to Safety We have been speaking for several weeks about factors in the broader markets that affect the prices of precious metals — like optimism, GDP, and the rate of inflation. In order for us to see a significant change in precious metals prices, you'd have to see a significant change in one of those categories. With the tariff and trade wars, we’ve seen a lot of movement. Reviewing the research coming out of Hedgeye Risk Management and their Growth, Inflation, Policy (GIP) Quad System, it seems the US is moving into quadrant four — which is growth slowing and inflation slowing. What’s unusual is that when you have a sell off occurring in the equities market or in the crypto market, money typically goes into the US dollar. However, there’s a double whammy of the dollar falling precipitously as well as the equities market falling. So where is the money going? It's fleeing into safety and going into metals. The Gold Rush Begins Trump has also called for an audit of all the gold stored in Fort Knox. But even if all 8,100 tons of gold are stored there, that doesn’t even equal $900 billion — which is valued at about 1.3% of all of the money in circulation and the national debt. Smart investors who start stacking gold ounces now will be getting in ahead of the massive gold rush about to happen. The Tangible Opportunity The new US administration is slashing the government budget and finding money quickly in anticipation of what’s to come financially. The US owes $36 trillion, and it will have to refinance $27 trillion when it comes due in the next four years. That is an erupting volcano of treasury paper into a market without enough buyers. The US has to find a way to move that money into something else. That’s why Trump has also been talking about establishing a Sovereign Wealth Fund, which could include gold, timber, oil and gas, pipelines and other tangible assets. Everything that the government is considering putting into a Sovereign Wealth Fund is exactly what we’ve been offering through our hard asset portfolios at McAlvany Wealth Management. Add Gold Ounces Today If you haven’t connected with a McAlvany Advisor yet, now is a great time to discover how gold can support your investment strategy. Call us at (800) 525-9556 for a complimentary portfolio review. One of our trusted advisors will help you discover your personal strategy for adding gold ounces to reach your goals.…

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Flight To Gold & U.S. Treasuries 36:02

7 weeks sitten36:02

36:02

German Borrowing Costs Surge Trump Calls Tariff The Most Beautiful Word China Says: "You Want War?... Fine" "We've often noted the migration of crisis from financial and economic to the political and geopolitical realm. We should not forget that the largest buyers of gold today are acquiring it as a strategic allocation, not merely as a trade. In a disrupted world with changing associations—very fluid loyalties—control is important, autonomy is important, agency is important, insurance is important." - David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to The McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, we've been doing this a long time—2008, on—this commentary anyway. The company's been here since 1972, so we've seen an awful lot, but think about the last few years when America was paying Europe's bills, and the handouts were coming out quite a bit. We were scratching our heads going, ZIRP, zero interest rate policy. If you were a German or if you were a European, you really didn't have to pay interest on your debt, did you? David: No. And that is quickly changing. You know, the speed at which things are changing reminds me a lot of where we were, March of 2008, so 17 years ago. As we get to our anniversary this month, it is fascinating, the quantity of information, the complexity of how things are occurring, trying to wrap our minds around them, get our arms around them from a market's perspective is one thing, from an economic perspective is another, from a political and public policy perspective, yet another still. And in terms of international relations, trying to weave all these things together, it's just flat complicated. Kevin: When we were first starting this program, it was following Bear Stearns coming out and trying to offer debt into the market and then pulling the debt back off. Something very similar happened this week, didn't it? David: Yeah, we were alive when Bear Stearns was an entity. There's some people in the markets today that probably don't even know that name—unless they're interested in the history of the global financial crisis, then they might have some historical reference, but no experience. We have a lot of mile markers in our company, and I go back through— Sometimes I can tell where we were at in a period of time by the bars that we're looking at. For instance— Kevin: You're talking about where they serve drinks? David: Oh, no. I mean, I have Silver Bache bars. B-A-C-H-E. Bache was a Wall Street firm that is no more. We have Gold Credit Suisse Bars. 20 years from now, people will be like, "Who is Credit Suisse?" They're gone, too. Over time, there is an evolution, and it is very Darwinian on Wall Street. Kevin: That's such an amazing metaphor, Dave, because the gold and the silver that those bars, actually, those imprints on those bars, the gold and the silver, has just been going up. But a lot of those places have just disappeared. David: Yeah, I love the story that they tell long after these firms, very established firms, have gone away. You think, "Well, they must not have been anything significant." Anybody remember Barings? Kevin: Yeah. David: Known as the sixth great power. I mean, in terms of importance in the world scene. I mean, it's just another bank, just another failure. And these things- Kevin: And it failed in a day. David: These things happen, and I do feel— Obviously the dynamics are different. We're not talking about mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, CLOs, CDOs, but we are back to a market where leveraged loans are selling off and credit is being— I wouldn't say we're moving towards any degree of panic, but there's pressure developing within the corporate credit markets. And last week, to your point earlier, the European bond markets are reflecting the German commitment to spend, and prices of European IOUs uniformly sold off last week with yields rising 40 to 45 basis points for the week in ...…

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Silver Shines, Dollar Weakens 17:24

7 weeks sitten17:24

17:24

Precious metals experienced some small dips early in the week, but all jumped back up to steady levels, while silver rose over 3% from last week. The volatility continues with the dollar index down significantly. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 5: The price of gold is flat at $2,915 from Wednesday to Wednesday. But gold dropped down to $2,832 in the beginning of the week. The price of silver is up almost 3.5% at $32.70. It hasn’t broken into new territory, but it is looking strong after declining last week. Platinum is also flat at $970, up just a few dollars from the prior week. But the price fell to about $929 intraweek. Palladium is up 3.2% in the last week to $946. Looking over at the paper markets… The S&P 500 is down about 2% from our recording last week, currently sitting at 5838. The US dollar is down over 2% to $104.03. It had the three worst trading days since 2022. A pretty significant reaction to economic and political news. Trump Tariffs Trump wanted tariffs and better prices at the gas pump, and so far he got his wish. His goal is to drive more domestic manufacturing and increase exports from the US. And along with this, the US dollar has also weakened. OPEC has stated that they will increase production of oil, which will make consumers happy. However, it will also drive prices down globally, which does not bode well for domestic production in terms of prices. Gold Shines in February Looking at the monthly numbers, gold was the only metal that ended February in positive territory. Gold rose up 1.6% over the month, and it is 8% higher year-to-date. Meanwhile, silver lost 1.1%. Platinum ended the month down 4.3%. Palladium declined 9.3% in February. When we look at charting trend lines, it appears that gold will likely trade sideways for a while or potentially go into a small correction. But it is unlikely to sink down to lows that we saw even just a couple of years ago. In next week’s episode, we will dive deeper into precious metals market trends and what we predict will happen with gold in 2025 and beyond. Be sure to tune in next week. Get Started With Gold If you haven’t connected with a McAlvany Advisor yet, now is a great time to discover how gold can support your investment strategy. Our advisors are happy to speak with you about your personal investment goals and how to start adding gold ounces. Just give the team a call at (800) 525-9556 to get a complimentary portfolio review.…

1
Markets Signaled Trump / Zelensky A Month Earlier 29:22

8 weeks sitten29:22

29:22

European Defense Stocks Soar Since Jan 1 Three U.S. Goals: Minerals, No NATO Ukraine, Europe Pays Fair Share Gold Up 70% More Than DOW In 25 Years "It was as if Trump and Vance were saying, "You want to raise the guarantee issue again? That was a firm no, don't try and play the press on this issue. And you know what? If you can't get down to business on the only yes issue we're here to settle, then lingering on the already settled no issue brings this meeting to a close. You're fired." Guess how fast the tone shifts? Go back to yes on minerals, and Zelensky can stay Presidentsky indefinitely. But if you change the direction of the conversation, dead end, we're done." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, welcome back. Last Friday was a really interesting day here in the United States, but Europe looked at it in a different way. And you were in, I think, France on Friday. David: Yeah, we were celebrating our 25th anniversary. 25 years is not a short stretch, but I'm looking forward to the next 25. And glad to be back in the US. Kevin: Well, a quarter of a century, it's amazing when you actually talk about it like that, it's like, wow, a quarter of a century? I still see you guys as newly marrieds. David: I think we do too. Kevin: Well, what occurred last Friday, it's interesting. I called my wife, and she said, "Hey, did you just see what happened in the Oval Office?" And I think we'd better talk about that. David: Propaganda is something that has been a fascination to me for a long time, how you message things, and what you want people to receive in the message. There's no doubt that in warfare, messaging and communication are key. And it's not because you want the opposition to understand you, but because you want them to understand what you want them to understand. So propaganda is a tool for shaping perceptions and driving towards desired outcomes. And it's a fluid communications mechanism, which sometimes expresses the truth, sometimes expresses the truth from a unique vantage point, and sometimes embraces falsehood. Most often, it's moving unannounced from one camp to the other camp, making impressions via those staged appearances. Kevin: I remember when you and I agreed to read Machiavelli's The Prince together, and I felt dirty after I read it, to be quite honest with you, because there was a lot of falsehood. Do you think that sounds like the current administration? David: No, I don't think so. Reflecting on the events of last week with Trump, with JD Vance, and Zelensky in the Oval Office, there was no Machiavellian wizardry, no Goebbels' manipulation machine. Trump, it seems to me, has a yes and a no. Kevin: He seemed to know what he was going to go in there for, and it didn't happen. David: Two primary outcomes desired from the Zelensky talks. Number one, minerals. That is the yes. Not there to discuss, not there to ask for 50% and settle on 25%. To go forward, the yes box must be checked. Number two was the no, no NATO membership, and no backdoor equivalent. The security guarantees that Zelensky keeps circling back to are an implied membership, not literal, but the membership is for one thing, to obligate Europe and the US to directly intervene via Article 5, the collective defense article. If Zelensky can't have membership, he wants the primary benefit of membership, the security guarantee. And Trump has been crystal clear that a stated security guarantee is off the table. Kevin: Yeah. And did you see how Trump's tone shifted, along with Vance, when they started to realize that Zelensky wasn't seeing it that way at all? David: Exactly. It was a change in posture, a change in body language. Tone shifted along with Vance's—Trump's, that is—when the guarantee issue was raised again. And the annoyance level was audible and visible, his tone, and volume,…

1
Markets Face Pullback 21:17

8 weeks sitten21:17

21:17

Gold was down slightly week over week. Silver dropped 3% over the past week, while platinum was flat and palladium dropped over 7%. Bitcoin took a massive hit following a major hack. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 26: The price of gold is down 0.6% at $2,918 from a week earlier. The price of silver is down 3% sitting firmly at $31.80, still looking pretty strong after a big move up. Platinum is down 1.8% at $966. Palladium is down 7.25% in the last week to $921. Looking over at the broader markets… The S&P 500 is down about 3% to 5,950 from a week earlier. The US dollar is at $106.50, declining about 0.4% from a week earlier. Bitcoin is down 13% in the last week, after some North Korean hackers got into one of the crypto exchanges. Bullish Gold As we discussed before the election, we expected the price of gold to dip if a Republican president came into office. And as predicted, gold did decline once Trump sealed his victory. The difference is that gold’s dip was pretty insignificant if you compare it to other presidential elections. In Trump’s previous 2016 victory, gold bottomed out around 12-13% lower in February and March. For this election, gold only fell about 7% and it hit the bottom in December. Looking at the short-term move, gold was around $2590 in mid-December 2024. Now that we’re at the end of February, the price of gold has jumped up all the way to a high of $2,955. That’s an almost 50% rise over the last 12 months. Could there be a buying opportunity in the near future? With gold on this meteoric rise, there is still a chance that it will have a Fibonacci correction level — which would mean a potential $100 decline. But these buying opportunities have become more rare recently with the bullishness in the gold market. Silver Buy Opportunity Silver has been strong over the last several months, with a strong stair-step pattern up when you look at its price chart. Looking at the short term, silver has already taken about a 50% retracement in price. You're Silver’s bull market started around the end of December where the price was around $29.16. It has since run up to $33.40 taking a little interim step back down. Silver is still extremely undervalued, and investing in it while the price is down opens future opportunities for ratio trades. Especially when it comes to stacking ounce of gold over time, silver can create that opportunity with a smaller investment in silver ounces that can eventually be exchange for gold ounces. Seize Opportunity Still waiting on the sidelines for the right time to buy precious metals? The best time to buy metals was 20 years ago — but the second best time is today. Your McAlvany Advisor can help you determine your best strategy for adding ounces of gold and other precious metals to your portfolio. With decades of experience as investors themselves, they are happy to speak with you about your personal investment goals and get you started the right way. Just give the team a call at (800) 525-9556 to get a complimentary portfolio review.…

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The WWII Monetary Order Is Over 1:05:15

9 weeks sitten1:05:15

1:05:15

Bill King On Russia, Iran, China, & Bretton Woods III Should Trump Expect The Reagan Double Dip Recession? DOGE Attacks The Grift & Skim Government “The gold is an okay inflation hedge. It's an enormous political hedge, and that's what's going on. China, especially Europe. Europe is in deep, deep trouble. Now the good news is that Trump might force them to do the major restructuring that they need to do, just like some company that's going down and all of a sudden, the vultures of private equity start taking positions and you start saying, 'That's it. We got a position there, and guess what? If you don't cut all this stuff out, we're just pulling your funding and then you're going to go to zero.' That's what Trump's giving to Europe, reform or guess what? You're going to go to zero." —Bill King Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I'm really looking forward to this interview. We talk to Bill King at least once a year, maybe twice a year. I was talking to a client just before we stepped into the studio. This guy is pretty sharp. He works at a lab that works on nuclear fusion. He listens to the Commentary every week, and I said, we're going to go interview Bill King right now. And he goes, "Oh, I love Bill King." He says, "Now, I do have to listen two or three times, but I love Bill King." David: A lot to unpack for sure, every time. The perspective that is sort of from macro to micro, taking the 30,000-foot view and then getting right into the trenches, daily market activity. No better guest, I don't think, that we've had in the 18, 19 years we've been doing this. * * * Bill King, always great to have you on the program. I feel like we're in touch daily as we read the King Report without fail daily. In fact, my oldest son is a bit of a news junkie and he too has enjoyed the King Report as he's gotten older, freshman in college now and probably better read than most his age, and I have you to thank for that. So let's start with some contextual issues, and then drive towards specific market and asset class considerations. Really big things changing, potentially the re-engineering of the global trade system on the table. Tariffs are part of that, maybe change tax policy internationally factoring in. Expand for us what it means to be at the intersection of significant trade policy shifts, political re-engineering here in the US, and a morphing of geopolitical commitments. Bill: You know, these are changes that probably are more profound than even when Reagan came in, and probably more profound than the Republican Revolution in 1994 when they took the House for first time since with the '50s. Since then, they've had the House more than the Democrats, when you go back all those years between the '50s and whatever, thirty-some years, the Republicans seldom had the house. So some very profound changes. And the big one, of course, is Trump is trying to dismantle the administrative state, the deep state. And this is something all the way back to Reagan people talked about, but it hasn't happened because of entrenched interests in the United States Congress and in the executive branch and even the judiciary, and it's happening so rapidly. And then of course, the same thing is you're getting Europe. Europe had the changes with Soviet Union went down '91. The wall went down, what, '89 and then you saw that they brought in the euro, the EU, all this stuff is unwinding. And then even China, China's having all kinds of issues now. They have so much debt, they're straining to get their economy going. There's all kind of hints of political unrest and Xi's trying to hold on. So we don't quite know. I mean, the one thing the Fed is right, is they're saying, "We had to wait because we don't know how this is going to play out." Well, they're looking at the tariffs, but there's things far bigger than tariffs going on.…

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Gold Demand Shakes Markets 28:02

9 weeks sitten28:02

28:02

Gold and silver rose up this week, while platinum slid off a new high and palladium remained flat. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 19: The price of gold is up 0.6% at $2,935. However, gold was as high as around $2,947 this past week, so we did see gold put in a new all time high. The price of silver is up 1.4% on the week at $32.77. Silver got as high as about $33.40 this past week. So silver had a pretty strong week out doing gold by a little bit and bringing that ratio back under 90, currently sitting at around 89 to one. Platinum is down 6.3%, but we did start our week last Thursday at the October high of $1,053, so Platinum had a pretty strong week last week ending on Thursday at a multiple month high. Palladium is flat at $990. But it did go as high as $1,035 during the week and at one point was up about 5%. So there’s some consistent movement up in both platinum and palladium. Looking at the broader markets… The S&P 500 is up 1.3% to 6,143, putting in a new all time high. It has a beautiful stair-step chart. The US dollar is down about 0.5%, sitting at $107.01, confirming the downtrend in the purchasing power of the US dollar right now. Given what's going on in the precious metals market this week, we need to talk a little bit about supply and demand. Gold Leasing in Demand There’s a renewed interest in gold leases among large institutional investors. Here’s how gold leasing typically works: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) will lease gold for a period of time depending upon the money that's flowing into their exchange traded funds. Market makers such as big corporate dealers will borrow gold for a year to capitalize their operation. Less than three months ago, institutions could borrow gold for close to 0% interest per year, and borrow several tons of gold at less than 0.5% - 1% per year cheaper than getting a bank loan. But now, gold lease rates are anywhere from 3% — or perhaps at 2% if you just borrow it for six months. More money is flowing into gold ETFs from Europe and Asia. But you can’t say the same about US investors. Americans Still Betting on Crypto Americans see it differently — their money is skipping the ETFs and going into cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. With the new administration shaking things up, and with DOGE uncovering corruption, US investors are feeling more confident. So instead of putting their money in a real and tangible store of value like gold, they are willing to bet big on the uncertain cryptocurrencies. The only problem? The American public still hasn't caught on to the fact that the price of gold is going to go so much higher. The smartest wealth builders are quietly adding more gold ounces — serving as the insurance portion that will protect their purchasing power from being eroded by inflation. And the way the US government has been running up debt, inflation is inevitable. Add Gold Ounces Today Call us at (800) 525-9556 so we can speak with you individually and walk through your own portfolio. Our team of experts can help you understand the whys and the hows with acquiring gold.…

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Rising Gold Still Waiting For Western Investor 36:55

10 weeks sitten36:55

36:55

Median Age Of Renter Is Now 42, Up From 33 Trump Will Get A Victory Lap If He Cuts Middle Class Taxes Strong, Long-Term Holding Gold Buyers Dominate Market "I think Trump gets his victory lap if he can aid middle-class taxpayers with cuts, social security becoming tax-free, the extending of cuts already in place. These things would be very helpful to the middle class, and potentially offset a significant portion of the next inflationary increase. But asset classes remain very vulnerable to a second thrust higher from inflation. So the difference between the middle class worrying about income and how far their money goes versus what their balance sheet looks like, I think that's where the balance sheet is particularly vulnerable. From a valuation perspective, the stock market today is set to deliver the worst returns on record over the next decade." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, if I look back, my wife and I, when we first got married we were quite young. I mean I was 20 when we got married, and we initially bought our first place with a little bit of help from our parents as far as the down payment goes. And what we've tried to do is we've tried to progressively own a little larger place—up to the point that the house we've been in now we've been in almost 30 years, and we'll probably at this point have to start downsizing—but that was the idea. All of the people that I knew, that's what you did. You built, you built, you built, and then you downsized. And what that did was that opened up the opportunity of possibly having a nest egg when it comes time for retirement. It feels like that's changing. David: Yeah. A mortgage allows you to over time build that nest egg through almost like a four savings program. Yes, there's the debt that's associated with it, but as you retain some equity, assuming that the value of the house is stable or moves higher, it's pretty remarkable. Zillow reported last week, the median age of a renter is now 42 years old— Kevin: Wow. David: —up from 33 years old just three years ago. Kevin: That is incredible. So renting in your 40s, that seems to be the new way. David: Shocking to me, but not surprising given the affordability of housing. So confirming an affordability crisis in real estate, the Zillow stats suggest we are creating a generation that is far less likely to see the net worth bump and liquidity bump in retirement years from converting home equity into a larger retirement nest egg, kind of topping it off and then converting it to an income-producing asset. Maybe it's bonds, maybe it's mutual funds, maybe it's something else. That is typical in investors' life cycle. Buy, gradually pay off the mortgage. If real estate values have increased, you have an appreciated asset that is larger than you need as your family matures and moves out, allowing you to convert the home equity into a retirement nest egg additive. Kevin: It just goes to show we've heard people say, "Well, someday you'll own nothing and you'll be happy about it," but we're seeing that trend right now. I mean with where people live or even music, Dave. In the old days you would download something, you'd have a CD or you'd download it and you'd pay for it and you'd have it. Now every time you try to listen to something, I was trying to listen to Beethoven's 6th Symphony the other day. I own it. I know it's somewhere on the iPod or it's on the iPhone, but they just wanted to sell me a subscription. They don't want me to own anything. David: That's right. Kevin: They just want me to renew and rent everything. David: Yeah, rent the song. Kevin: Everything. David: Well, the ramp up in real estate prices has been beneficial to current owners, but it's locked out a generation from home ownership, and it's creating over time a greater reliance on Social Security,…

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Gold Hits New All-Time Highs | Market Insights & Inflation Concerns 20:04

10 weeks sitten20:04

20:04

Gold and platinum continue to march higher, while silver and palladium buck the overall trend. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 12: The price of gold is up 1.25% to around $2904 — not a huge change week over week. However, gold did reach a high of $2942 midweek, which marks a new all time high. The price of silver is down 0.2% on the week, sitting at $32.22 — just about flat. However, silver had a swing from the intraday high to low of about 5%. Platinum is up, 2.2% or $1,033, showing some strength this week. Palladium continues its slide down 3% to $985. And if you look at the high right at the end of January, palladium is down 9% in the month of February. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is down about 0.4% or 6,053. However, it seems to be in a sideways pause. At least as of right now for the last couple of weeks, the equities market is trading sideways. The dollar is up about 0.16% to $108 from our recording last week — seeing some strength in the US dollar. Dr. Copper’s Check Up With the price of gold up and the price of silver basically flat, the gold-to-silver ratio hit 92.2 as of recording. That is the highest it has been since August 2022, and the fourth highest gold silver ratio ever. How do we see silver moving with the ratio widening? That’s when we look at what copper is doing. As we have discussed before, the metal carries the moniker "Dr. Copper" because it is an indicator that reflects the health of the economy. As we saw in a recent January episode, copper continues to show strength — which means the economy is growing. Copper is back near all-time highs. As of this recording, it is around $4.70, which is right at the top of its trading range. And it’s likely that it could break through to $5. If it does, we expect that the price of silver will also rise, and narrow the gold-to-silver ratio again. DOGE to Audit BLS We’ve talked before about how statistical reports seem to paint a more rosy picture of the outlook of the economy. For example, everybody knows that inflation is way under-reported compared to what it actually costs to put food on the table and gas in the car. Now, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is going to audit the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While it’s impossible to know exactly what will happen, it’s possible we’ll see major changes in past reports on everything from non-farm payrolls to GDP and CPI. The inflation rate will likely be significantly higher than what has been reported in the past. Because the policymakers in Washington use all of the figures in the economic reports to allocate funding, whatever DOGE uncovers in their reports could lead to a massive overhaul in governmental spending. Worldwide Demand for Gold Meanwhile, the gold price continues to climb higher with strong demand worldwide. Global gold ETF holdings bounced up 3,253 tons to a total assets under management of US $294 billion. Now it's a matter of who will control the physical aspect of of gold. Will it be the East or the West? Is it going to be the LBMA or the Comex and NYMEX? One thing’s for certain, US investors have a distinct advantage right now with premiums on real, physical gold at very low prices — so this is the time to start adding ounces to your portfolio. Plan Your Metals Strategy How many ounces of gold and other precious metals should you add to your portfolio? The McAlvany advisor team is here to help guide you. With decades of experience in precious metals investing, they are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…

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A Weaker Dollar Is On Trump’s Agenda 34:08

11 weeks sitten34:08

34:08

Gold Price In Dollars To Rise China Approves Gold Now In Its Insurance Company Portfolios Russian Consumer Demand For Gold Up 60% Since Ukraine Invasion "A weaker dollar is on the agenda, and this is a decided shift to force the dollar lower on a managed basis, ultimately will require a multilateral currency agreement that takes the dollar lower relative to its global peers. We'll have to have participation from other central banks as we orchestrate that. The Plaza Accord accomplished this in 1985, and a version of that is a growing likelihood." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, it was a quick trip, but I have to say aloha. Welcome back. David: The halfway point between the Philippines and Durango, Colorado is Honolulu—Waikiki. Kevin: Honolulu with a— Didn't you say you got a convertible and you just drove all around the island up to the North Shore? David: Oh, got a great deal, and took my parents all over the place. Yes, we're going to talk about gold. Kevin: Yeah. David: Yeah. New all-time highs warrant a conversation. It's trading over 2,900 this week. My call on Bloomberg Television a month back for 3,250 in 2025 seems a little less far-fetched. Kevin: It feels sort of daring when you do it and now you can look at it and go, "Okay, 3,250." We're very, very close to that, but let's go back to the trip. You have been out of the office now for the last week. Is there perspective that comes when you step away from the chaos? David: Definitely. A few days out of the office, a few days with my parents brings perspective. I'm grateful for our annual meetups, and I hope we have a lot more of them. I treasure each one of them. Kevin: I love the fact that you guys are so deliberate year after year after year. Think back, Dave. Think back to some of the great trips that you've had with your parents. David: Oh, well, one that stands out, I remember a trip to Manhattan with my parents to celebrate what was our first anniversary and their 30th. We were living in Boston at the time, so New York was a short stretch away. Now I'm approaching, still have five years, a 30th anniversary of my own. Life happens that fast. You blink, and decades have passed. I think we're confronted with inescapable moments of self-reflection, and sometimes those are at big life events. Think of your family, weddings, funerals. You get together and it's reflecting back and you see how much has changed in the time that's passed in between. Outside of the best man's toast and the epitaph—between them, I should say—there's a blur of days and years and decades. I think some of us with a melancholy streak or sentimental soft spot reflect a little more often and don't need those big days for inspiration. Most days, frankly, are strung together in sort of an undifferentiated stream like frames in a film reel. Kevin: I just got off the phone with a client before we stepped into the studio. These folks own a ranch up in Oregon—or farm, actually—and they just had a new lamb that was born right before we talked. She had to run out the door to chase off predators actually, but they had been accumulating precious metals for years. They listen to the Commentary. I got to know them more than a decade ago, but they said, "Kevin, I just want you to know as we go through this triangle update, is what we call it, we are really thinking about our grandkids at this point." He said, "A lot of people think about their kids for inheritance. We're already on grandkids." And I said, "Well, Dave calls that legacy. Legacy investing. It's a legacy mindset." There's a lot of things to count other than money, right? I mean, we value a lot of things. David: Sure. I mean, we're in the investment business. We're constantly toggling between present value and future value. We assign resources for a positive outcome in the future,…

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Market Volatility Continues 22:11

11 weeks sitten22:11

22:11

Gold and precious metals saw more volatility over the last week, but overall strong in the beginning of this new year. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 5: The price of gold is up 3.6% to $2,862. However, gold did break above $2,900 in the futures market. The price of silver rose up 4.8% to $32.32. This has inched the gold to silver ratio down a couple of points to 88 to 1. Platinum is up about 3% to $1,008, from a week earlier. Palladium up about 3.8% to $1,015, rising from a week earlier as of recording. Looking at the broader markets… The S&P 500 moved sideways, and was at 6,058 as of recording. The US dollar index was down about 0.25% to $107.06. But it did reach $110 before making a pretty significant crash back down. A Strong January for Metals Looking back at January performance, precious metals across the board showed strength in the first month of the year. Gold closed out the month up 6.5%, while silver outperformed gold with a rise of 8.6%. It gets none of the attention, but that's because gold's at all time highs. Platinum rose up 8.1% in January, while palladium led the charge overall, up 10.6% by the end of the month. As discussed in our January 24th show, the commitment of traders continues to bet long on gold. We believe that gold could reach a new record high of $3,000 before we see a decline. Bond Market Stabilizes Despite interest rates shifting down 18%, the bond market looks pretty stable. The short-term one-year and two-year bond yields are down around 20%. But looking at the 10-year bond yield, it has only declined 10%. So despite the massive interest rate rise through 2022 into 2023, tapering off in 2024 and down a little bit at the end of last year, the bond rates have stabilized. The bond market is far bigger than the equities market, and it’s encouraging to see money moving into 10 year Treasurys — an indication that big money is happy with the direction the US is going and perhaps even hedging risk in the equity world. Volatility in Cryptos Bitcoin still looks relatively healthy, but Ethereum had a 36% drop in a day. And while it took a significant bounce up, it did also have a significant decline over the last couple weeks and months in some of the alternative cryptos. So we're seeing rampant volatility in certain places right now. While some investors will continue to beat the drum for this gold alternative, cryptocurrencies still haven’t shown the stability of precious metals. Gold is still the original money — real, tangible, and the true hedge against inflation. Protect Your Money With Gold Gold is a powerful safe haven and insurance policy against economic and political uncertainty. Now is the time to reach out to a trusted McAlvany advisor for precious metals investing advice. They are happy to speak with you about your investment goals and strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…

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Trump: Breaking Bad To Remake Good 35:41

12 weeks sitten35:41

35:41

Radical Re-think On Dollar Boosts Gold's Future Read Doug Noland's Latest Credit Bubble Bulletin Read Morgan Lewis' Hard Asset Insights "If the US is to be the primary winner in the restructuring of the global system, it will come at the expense of our trade partners. Think about China and over a trillion dollars in Treasuries. Think about Japan. If that cycle has contributed to the hollowing out of our US manufacturing base, the course he's proposing is one that is decidedly dollar negative. So to boost the value of our trade partners' currencies, to devalue the dollar and rebuild our manufacturing base is a 180 from the conditions that have created our current system of trade and drive our import-export balances to the levels we have. Now, clearly we've got trade deficits on a gargantuan scale. I think we're on the cusp of a major monetary regime change." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany. Dave, there are times when the guys that we would go to say, "Hey, where is this going to end up?", like Doug Noland or Morgan Lewis or some of the people that help give us instruction. We go, "Okay, so Trump's doing this. Where is this going to end up?" When these guys themselves are saying, "Well, let's analyze it, but I have no idea." That's what it feels like right now, that nobody really knows. What does this look like as we recreate the entire financial and economic structure of America? David: Yeah, the idiom being caught off balance, I think has application because there's not an asset class that hasn't been sort of scratching their head, investors saying, "What exactly does this mean and what am I supposed to do about it?" So yes, there is a sense of being annoyed and disturbed and rattled, and we're seeing that show up in the form of volatility, for sure. Kevin: And that's why it would probably be a good idea for our listeners to go back, if they didn't hear the Tactical Short call with you and Doug last week. It's not only available in recorded form on our website, we'll go ahead and put that on the links, but it's transcripted as well if you'd rather read. David: Yeah. So if you don't want to spend two hours, I think— Last week Doug Noland and I recorded the Tac Short call. There is a brief version of it in the Credit Bubble Bulletin from the weekend. So if you weren't on the call, I insist you take 10 minutes to read this week's Credit Bubble Bulletin. If I told you your financial health depended on it, would you ignore that? And I do think your financial health depends on it. In the show notes, follow the link and just take 10 minutes, read the first part of the weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin. It's the weekly. We do a daily as well, which has the news feeds. So make sure and look for the weekly. Kevin: Well, and just to mention, you're just about to get on a plane, and I love it when you get a chance to go see your dad, I think he's going to be 85 in June, and your mom. But just for the listener's sake, we're recording this one day early, so anything that we say, there'll be a little bit of news events that come before the Wednesday publication of this show. David: Well, the last few weeks, every day there's been news items coming at us fast and furious. But yeah, you're right. My dad's 85 this year. Mom is a spry 78, but with a cancer recovery effort still in play there are even more reasons to be with them whenever possible. So if the events in the call today seem different by the time you're listening, I just wanted you have that context. Kevin: Well, and so let's start putting some things in context because over the last week, we talked about the DeepSeek shock. But we're seeing shocks in a lot of areas: cryptocurrencies, AI, DeepSeek, and honestly a lot of the ramifications from tariffs I'd like to just maybe talk about all of that today. David: Yeah. Last week was DeepSeek and a challenge to the AI narrative....…

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Markets in Motion 16:10

12 weeks sitten16:10

16:10

Gold and precious metals were largely flat over the week, as broader markets gyrated on AI news from China and the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on January 29: Gold is flat at $2,755 from a week earlier. Gold did touch up into its all-time high territory for a moment, but it didn’t reach its record. Silver is sitting at $30.65 — dead even from a week earlier. Silver did have a mid-week dip down 3%, but recovered by the time of recording. Platinum is up 1.5% to $972 from a week earlier. Palladium is down 1.5%, also at $972 from a week earlier. Looking at movement in the broader markets… The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% to 6,040 this week. It did put in a new high as well as about a 2% decline at one point in the immediate reaction of the AI news coming out of China. The US dollar is also dead even at $108. For the first time in quite a while, the dollar did go below $107 for a short period. Dr. Copper Shows Strength in Economy Looking at a chart of copper prices over the past year, the metal has shown a strong pendant formation. And when we look back over the last four years, copper shows its in a rising trend line. The shiny metal is nicknamed "Dr. Copper" because it is an indicator that reflects the health of the economy. With copper’s price rising steadily, the economy is growing stronger. Trump Picks a Fed Fight Trump is blaming Powell and the Fed for high inflation, and he wants the Fed to reduce the target for interest rates. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve indicated that they would keep interest rates steady and noted the lack of progress toward their 2% inflation rate goal. Cutting rates would further stimulate the economy, increasing the inflation rate and making it harder for people to afford staples like groceries and gas. As we’ve discussed in past episodes, the way to attack inflation is to curb overspending by Congress — an unpopular solution that can kill a political career. One thing that will preserve your purchasing power no matter what move the Fed makes? Turning your dollar bills into gold ounces. Invest in Gold Today Our team of advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…

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Tactical Short 4th Quarter 2024 Recap 1:51:00

12 weeks sitten1:51:00

1:51:00

Historic ‘24 Excess Portends Precarious 2025 MWM Q4 2024 Tactical Short Conference Call January 30, 2025 David: Good afternoon. This is David McAlvany. We'll go ahead and get started. This is our January 30th, 2025 Tactical Short conference call titled Historic 2024 Excess Portends Precarious 2025. Good afternoon. Thank you for participating in our fourth-quarter recap. As always, thank you to our valued account holders. We so greatly value our client relationships. With first-time listeners on today's call, we'll begin with some general information. And for those of you unfamiliar with Tactical Short, more detailed information is available at mcalvany.com/wealth/tactical-short/. If you'd like to explore next steps for opening a Tactical Short account or investigate how the service might complement your existing equity exposures, it's a good time to do so. The order of our call today will be my comments on performance followed by Doug's market commentary and then Q&A at the tail end. I have a number of questions already submitted. You may submit further questions to Ted via his email ted@mcalvany.com. And also, for inquiries on Tactical Short and its inclusion in your current strategies, you can also submit those inquiries to ted@mcavany.com. The objective of Tactical Short is to provide a professionally managed product that reduces the overall risk in a client's total investment portfolio, while at the same time providing downside protection in a global market backdrop with extraordinary uncertainty and extreme risk. The strategy is designed for separately managed accounts. It's investor friendly with full transparency, flexibility, reasonable fees, and no lockups. We have the flexibility to short stocks and ETFs and our plan has been to on occasion buy liquid listed put options. Shorting entails a unique set of risks we're set apart both by our analytical framework as well as our uncompromising focus on identifying and managing risk. Our Tactical Short strategy began the quarter with short exposure targeted at 80%. The target was held steady throughout the quarter, focused on the challenging backdrop for managing short exposure. The short in the S&P 500 ETF, SPY remains the default position for this high-risk environment. I'll give you an update on performance. Tactical Short accounts after fees returned negative 1.73 during Q4. The S&P 500 returned a positive 2.39. So for the quarter, Tactical Short accounts returned negative 72% of the S&P 500's positive return. As for one-year performance, Tactical Short after fees returned negative 15.32% versus the 25% return of the S&P, with Tactical Short losing 61.3% of the S&P 500's positive return. We regularly track Tactical Short performance versus three actively managed short-fund competitors. First, the Grizzly Short Fund, which returned a negative 1.64 during Q4, and over the past year Grizzly returned a negative 6.74. Ranger Equity Bear returned a negative 5.71 for the quarter, with a negative 7.97 for a one-year return. And Federated Prudent Bear returned a negative 0.68% during Q4 and a negative 12.32 for the one year. Tactical Short outperformed the actively managed bear funds for the quarter on average by 95 basis points. Tactical Short underperformed over the past year by an average 631 basis points. It has significantly outperformed, Tactical Short has, each of the bear funds since inception. From April 7th, 2017 inception through the end of the year, Tactical Short outperformed each of the three competitors by an average of 1,743 basis points or 17.43 percentage points. There are also the passive short index products. ProShares' short S&P 500 ETFs, which returned a negative 70 basis points for the quarter and a negative 13.51% for the past year. And the Rydex Inverse S&P 500 fund, which returned negative 0.53 in Q4, negative 13.08 for the one-year numbers. And then the PIMCO StocksPLUS Short Fund with a Q4 return of negative 15 b...…

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Will DeepSeek Be Deepshock To The Market? 28:20

13 weeks sitten28:20

28:20

NVIDIA Loses Over Half Trillion In One Day The World Needs Resources The Fed Can't Print DeepSink Is AI's Sputnik Moment "So earnings growth in the AI space, admittedly meteoric if not miraculous through the early quarters of 2024. Earnings growth slowed considerably in late 2024 and as we come into this year. And if the supply chain for AI is put under the microscope and found to be creating overcapacity, you've got an eerie echo from 1999 and 2000." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Before we start, Dave, let's go ahead and remind our listeners about the call with Doug Noland this week. David: Yeah, join Doug Noland and me on Thursday afternoon, 4:00 p.m. Eastern, 2:00 Mountain, for the Tactical Short. This is a Q4 recap conference call, “Historic ’24 Excess Portends Precarious 2025.” I announced this call three weeks ago, and the word "precarious” seemed out of place. The comment might not have made sense. Kevin: A little precarious now, though, huh? David: Yeah. Kevin: Yeah. David: Do market conditions seemed more precarious? I think so. Perceptions shift, and with them market pricing does as well. I highly recommend that you join us. If you are inadequately hedged, you can still remedy that. Get informed, register for the call, submit your questions ahead of time, and we'll do our best to address specific issues following the formal remarks. Short exposure has, as you might expect, been the inverse to the markets as they've been rising in recent years. You may not care about short exposure in a rising market without limits, but what about the limits? And what about a falling market? Are you adequately liquid? Do you have a form of financial insurance in place? We look forward to your presence on Thursday's call. Kevin: It's important to talk about hedges. I was thinking this week, Dave, when we saw DeepSeek come out. We can talk about that through the show, but I love South Pole history. I love Ernest Shackleton, or Robert Falcon Scott, or Roald Amundsen, and it reminded me of the story. You probably remember this, but in January of 1912, a very well-stocked team of 65, it started with 65 people. The last five to push to the South Pole for the English, it was Robert Falcon Scott, and four other guys. 65 people, hardware heavy. They had dogs, they had ponies, they had motors that they had to move, but there was a shock when they got there on January 17th, 1912. A Norwegian team had gotten there first. David: Almost a month earlier. Kevin: A month earlier, and they had 19 guys—19 in, 19 out. No one was lost. The Norwegians beat them. It was very light on the hardware. Scott was heavy on the hardware, and unfortunately the five that went in and came back out, all five were lost for the Scott team. So I'm wondering, Dave, if NVIDIA isn't a little bit like the Scott team right now, hardware heavy, and then you had DeepSeek this last week, come in and say, "Hey, you don't need that much hardware." David: Well, it's exactly right. You had a decline of $589 billion in a single day, and that marks the greatest concentrated single-company loss in financial history— Kevin: Wow. David: —in a 24-hour period. Kevin: Almost $600 billion lost. David: Forbes reports, "NVIDIA's nearly $600 billion market cap loss Monday is larger than the individual market values of all but 13 American companies. More than the market cap of titans like health insurer United Health, oil giant ExxonMobil, and retailer Costco. Kevin: Wow. David: And at issue, if Chinese company DeepSeek can do what the large language models do at a fraction of the cost with a fraction of the hardware, then you're looking at the AI supply chain in that Wile E. Coyote moment. Kevin: Wow. David: Gravity is in effect, and so the claim is that this more efficient open-source application was built for under $6 million, uses fewer than 10,…

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Gold Nears Record Highs 20:07

13 weeks sitten20:07

20:07

Gold and precious metals continue their march higher this week, buoyed by continued enthusiasm for the new US president and administration. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on January 23: The price of gold is up 2.5%, sitting at around $2,756. That’s only about $35 away from its previous all-time high. The price of silver is up around 0.9% at $30.85. Platinum is up 2.8%, to $960. Palladium is up 3.9% at $1000, just slightly below platinum. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is up about 2% this week to 6,091. The US dollar is down a little over 1% at $108.22. Big Money Bets on Gold Rise The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows the aggregate holdings of different participants in the U.S. futures market. These are compiled and published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the U.S. COT reports detail how many long, short, and spread positions make up the open interest. Looking at a recent report, we see that far more institutional investors have been betting long on gold futures. Their bets have paid off handsomely, as gold has recovered from its dip to rise back up to record levels. But will the managed money continue to speculate that gold will go up? Or will they start taking profits? Of course, it’s impossible to predict exactly how the price of gold will change. But here are a few scenarios to consider. Scenario 1: A Mild Selloff If there is an unwinding of those managed money speculative bets, it’s possible that we’ll see gold drop down closer to the lows seen in post-election November and December — potentially around the $2,500 per ounce range. If this happens, gold could trade sideways for a few months. Scenario 2: A Shallow Correction If instead there’s more of a correction, we might see gold in the intermediate term fall to a floor. A shallow correction would look like gold dropping to $2,350 per ounce. A deeper correction might be closer to where gold was during the post-pandemic highs, around $2,075. If silver decides to hold around its current level, that would open up a potential gold to silver ratio trade. That’s because the gold to silver ratio would be closer to 52:1 in this case. However, it looks less likely that this scenario would happen. Scenario 3: Untested Territory There’s a good possibility that a correction might not happen at all. And instead, gold would push up to new high levels into uncharted territory. If this happens, it’s possible that gold could climb to a new high around $3,500 per ounce. Looking at recent charting patterns, it is possible that gold could reach these new highs. Which means that investors waiting on the sidelines to catch the next dip would continue to miss out. Should you buy gold right now? The best way to know what would work for you is to consult a trusted, experienced precious metals professional. Get Started With Expert Advice Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…

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The Trump Sounds & Volatility Shall Follow 33:17

14 weeks sitten33:17

33:17

Executive Orders Signal Immediate Change Mr. Bond Vigilante Still Has The Strongest Say Uncertainty The Best Driver To Gold "So returning to the executive orders, at the end of page 2, I was saying, "Wow." At the end of page 5, each page with at least 10 executive orders on it, it was awe-inspiring, ambitious in scope, sure to offend, and FDR and Reagan both came to mind. Massive change, very disruptive to the status quo. From a market perspective, I kept thinking disruption, uncertainty. These are things that drive market volatility." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, all I can describe is sensory overload. I think about punk rock concerts back in the 1970s through the mid '80s. You had the bright lights, the strobes, you had the loud music, you had all these different things going on, which purposely are trying to create sensory overload. I wasn't really part of that movement, but I remember getting my pilot's license. And the guy who was checking me out was trying to do the same thing while I was flying a plane. Now, if I'm the markets right now, whether you're happy about Trump, whether you're not happy about Trump, but if I'm the markets, how in the world do I know what to do next? David: It's an amazing week. Normally on MLK day, I read a passage from MLK, Jr. and discuss it with my kids. Not this year. We've got the inauguration, the announcement of sweeping changes into the late hours of the evening. I was reading word for word the five pages of links to the new executive orders, redirecting the usual practice and had me a little bit distracted. So we've got the rescindment of 78 Biden-era executive actions. The second executive order stopped bureaucrats from issuing new regulations. The third mandated federal workers return to offices. Imagine that. Kevin: You got to go to work. David: I know. Kevin: You got to go to work. David: Ending government censorship, freezing hiring of the IRS agents, ending some birthright citizenships, signing pardons for 1,500 Jan. 6 prisoners, and then six commutations as a part of that. It goes on and on. Kevin: I told you, bright lights, strobe lights, sounds, it's all happening all at once. David: Yeah. Kevin: And it's presidential. I mean, these are executive orders, Dave. Nobody's voting on this. David: The one word I would apply to the markets going forward—reflecting on the knowns and the unknowns, the intended changes, and really the actual paths forward—is the word volatility. Kevin: Oh, sure. Well, what do you do when you have sensory overload? And again, there may be many really great long-term outcomes coming out of this, but what do you do in the meantime while things are shifting back and forth? David: I'm trying to replay in my mind Sid Vicious soundtracks, cassette tapes—because it would've been a cassette tape. The best way of describing the financial markets in the current context is like a vast casino. And again, you talk about sensory overload. Vegas has gotten a little bit better, even leaving the airport's not quite as loud as it used to be. But our current context is like a casino. You've got high stakes bets. They're rolling through constantly. You've got currency bets and fixed income bets and equity and option bets, cryptocurrency and commodity bets. And all of these bets are based on economic inputs. They're based on external factors which are deemed to tilt the odds in the favor of a certain outcome. Make no mistake, it is a casino and it's no longer clear to the currency players what those external factors are going to be. It's no longer clear to the fixed income players, the options traders, the commodity traders, and the equity operators just how those external factors are going to impact pricing. Kevin: Well, how about crypto? I mean, crypto just has one direction, doesn't it? David: Well,…

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