Three Trans-Atlantic Observers discuss every two weeks Markets, Society and other entertaining absurdities. The American educator Alfred Whitney Griswold said, “The only sure weapon against bad ideas is good ideas.” With that in mind, we’ve launched this Podcast OFF THE FENCE. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a subject we think we may know something about, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. We don ...
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Investing seems impossible to understand in lay person terms. The whole subject feels as the realm of acronyms and over-complicated buzzwords. Nonetheless we believe there are ways to break it all down to digestible pieces upon which anyone can feel they can make their own decisions. We discuss the world of investing and also crypto in a way you can understand and learn. Here we try to explain things in a simple way, rather than make us sound like geniuses. Add our Podcast Follow list at: ht ...
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European Union Credibility and No AI for Europe
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45:33
We discuss a number of toping relating to markets and society. German Energy Subsidies Factions in the European Union European government credibility and vision Trump capacity to become president again And why it does not really matter to the success of the US No AI for Europe Is the Dollar really at risk of losing reserve status? The Biden Adminis…
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Apple as a Bank and what AI means for markets and corporates
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32:26
We discuss a number of toping relating to markets and society. Apple’s Savings Account and is it a new Financial Player Future of retail banking Can payments ever be costless? The weight and cost of financial regulation AGI and open source AI tools lead the way The power of an independent AI developer scene What does AI mean for companies large and…
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Anything happening with Banks?
51:41
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51:41
We discuss a number of toping relating to psychology of markets. Silicon Valley Bank Stress Tests How big is this crisis and what tools remain to fight it Credit Suisse goes boom European regulators dim view of US Regulators Richard Feynman on the Scientific Method (sometimes a refresher is helpful) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw Welco…
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Future of London as Financial Center, Twitter
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32:04
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for volatile markets. - London as a financial center - The old magic of the American London headquarter - Wold Cup woes - Can an US World Cup do to Football what Liberty Media did to F1 - Wokesness gone too far and the future of Endowments - The Twitter Saga Again, go try this https://chat.openai…
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New Year's Predications, Ukraine, Why ESG?
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50:06
We discuss a number of toping relating to psychology of markets. Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine Lex Fridman Podcast #289 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a7CDKqWcZ0&t=7650s Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of…
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Frauds, Damn Frauds and Statistics. SBF, Marks to Market, Private Equity
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1:06:35
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for volatile markets. - Fraud makes a return to the Stage. - Interesting new governmental approaches to prosecuting said fraud - Contrasting SBF and Madoff - Optimism vs. Rationality with our resident optimist - Gating and Infrequent marks as a feature not a bug of Private Equity and other Karl P…
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Elections, Manias and Crashes
1:01:33
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1:01:33
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets. - US Elections - What if large technology companies can run down 80% on headcount - Are we getting a taste of future AI impact? - CBDC forces Central Banks into Politics Fun viewing Chamath Palihapitiya: Money, Success, Startups, Energy, Poker & Happiness https://www.you…
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30. Welcome Back. What are we to make of Bitcoin in a Bear Market
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43:08
What are we to make of Bitcoin in the middle of a brutal bear market. We discuss: - What has changed and what has not - Bitcoin as a network - Regulatory risks - What drives the current market price of Bitcoin We do not provide financial advise in any form. All information is our opinion and for entertainment use. Every Podcast we add a video or po…
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Ukraine, End Games and What future for free markets
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44:03
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets. - Backward bending supply curve for Civil involvement. - Are we progressing/regressing in Free markets and other Karl Popperisms... Fun viewing The Ideology of Putin's Russia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdFtqa54TuM&t=941s and the response The Ideology of Putin's Russ…
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Treasury Markets, the Fed and Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
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49:07
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets. - Liquidity in the Treasury Markets. - USD TIPS (treasury inflation Protected Securities) and inflation expectations https://treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/tips/#:~:text=As%20the%20name%20implies%2C%20TIPS,you%20get%20the%20increased%20amount Fun viewing The Bu…
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7. UK, Pensions, What to do in the middle of a Volatile downturn
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59:55
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets. - UK Pension and Gilt Chaos. - Surviving is about Risk Control Fun viewing THE U.S: The Next 100 Years https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98SjPPrYRno Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund in…
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6. US Politics and Market
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In this episode we discuss - US Politics and the outlook for the midterm - Market down and VIX way up, Market rallies and VIX goes up further - US as the engine of growth Fun viewing TRUSTLESS SOCIETIES https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=404IeUzGNZ4&t=172s Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an ins…
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5. Global Markets and Security
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41:58
In this episode we discuss - Recent Fed signaling - This winter in Europe - How fragile is the global security blanket China's Economy In A Downfall - Peter Zeihan Chinese Collapse https://youtu.be/YNNagW550yw Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk Lex Fridman Podcast #314 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF-E40pxx…
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4. Experiences in Bear Market Rallies
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37:27
In this episode we discuss - Economic impact of Inflation - Is China Slowing down? - Trading Bear Markets rallies - What are scenarios for Interest Rates? China's Economy In A Downfall - Peter Zeihan Chinese Collapse https://youtu.be/YNNagW550yw From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation by Nouriel Roubini https://www.project-syndicate.org/commenta…
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3. Contrasting U.S. and European Economic models
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27:14
Episode Links Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid (Article) The Atlantic https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369/ The Future of Europe (Video) https://youtu.be/AkIX5yHF1dU Business Roundtable Redefines the Purpose of a Corporation to Promote 'An Economy That Serves …
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2. Lessons learned in Bear Markets
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38:29
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast we hope will shed some light on subjects we think we may know something about. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We don’t expect to change …
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29. Has Bitcoin Failed as an Inflation Hedge?
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29. Has Bitcoin Failed as an Inflation Hedge? We discuss: - What has changed in Money Supply growth - Why this current inflation may be both temporary and worrisome - Is it too early to dismiss Bitcoin as a long term inflation hedge - What drives the current market price of Bitcoin We do not provide financial advise in any form. All information is …
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Episode 1: Introducing Off the Fence and the Gang
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1:10:11
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1:10:11
Welcome to the first edition Off the Fence, a podcast we hope will shed some light on subjects we think we may know something about. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We don’t expe…
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28. Bitcoin Maxi or other projects ok to look at?
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55:42
28. Bitcoin Maxi or other projects ok to look at? We discuss: - Can you use a value approach to analyzing other projects than Bitcoin? - Is it even worth it? We do not provide financial advise in any form. All information is our opinion and for entertainment use. Every Podcast we add a video or podcast we think of as Value add: Strategies for Asses…
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27. Bitcoin Use Cases in Ukrainian Conflict. Certainty in an Uncertain World?
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We discuss: - Bitcoin role In the Ukranian conflict - DEFI and NFT´s disruptive nature We do not provide financial advise in any form. All information is our opinion and for entertainment use. Every Podcast we add a video or podcast we think of as Value add: FYI - For Your Innovation. Big Ideas 2022 with Cathie Wood and Chris Hayes https://podcasts…
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26. Is Bitcoin a strategic Asset worthy of US Reserve status?
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27:57
We discuss: - Bitcoin vs. Gold - Why would #Bitcoin be seen as a strategic Reserve asset - How to think Probabilistically as opposed to Deterministically - Why institutions can't ignore even 5% tail events We do not provide financial advise in any form. All information is our opinion and for entertainment use. Every Podcast we add a video or podcas…
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25. Why we are going out to buy pasta!
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40:03
25. ¨Why We Are Going Out To Buy Pasta! ¨ We discuss: - Bitcoin in a time of centralized government action, even if morally justified - A time of disequilibrium usually comes with some pain - Could this solve some problems long term? We do not provide financial advise in any form. All information is our opinion and for entertainment use. Every Podc…
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24. ¨Ukraine War, Macro & Bitcoin¨
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34:50
24. ¨Ukraine War, Macro & Bitcoin¨ We discuss: - Multiple uses cases highlighted by the Ukrainian invasion - How to place financial assets and BTC in particular in perspective in times of grave uncertainty We do not provide financial advise in any form. All information is our opinion and for entertainment use. Every Podcast we add a video or podcas…
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23. "Is Diversification Even Valuable For Tech & Crypto?¨
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23. "Is Diversification Even Valuable For Tech & Crypto?¨ We discuss: - Facebook/Meta's recent fall - How to think of Technology when evaluating investments - High Valuation vs. Disruption - What does diversification mean in Tech and Crypto? We do not provide financial advise in any form. All information is our opinion and for entertainment use. Ev…
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22. DeFi: Infinite Potential vs. Regulatory Crosshairs?
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49:51
22. DeFi: Infinite Potential vs. Regulatory Crosshairs? Creating a new financial system based on new software rails is full of potential for new applications, lower costs and mass adoption. Will a regulatory clash stop it? We discuss: - The principles of Decentralized Finance - Regulatory risk across the landscape - Possible scenarios that can play…
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21. Emotions In A Bear Market! Is this time is different?
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21. How to deal with your emotions in a Bear Market We discuss how to think about your investment profile and the ensuing emotions when things get tough. We discuss: - Current Macro environment - Mind check your emotions as another way to look at your portfolio - Good market/Bad market check your expectations - Where to look for comfort - The way f…
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20. Bitcoin Adoption We discuss how the end state in 2022 of the Government Bond market and the influence of technology in most industries may help the long-term adoption of Bitcoin. We discuss: - Why the Fed had to buy a lot of junk in the Great Financial Crisis - Why quantitative easing is like Candy, hard to quit - How "Pay me in Bitcoin" may be…
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19: Smart Contracts: Code & Law?
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Episode 18. Exploring Smart Contracts Much is made of the ad ent of Smart Contract on the Blockchain and how they can revolutionize much of the transactional world. We take a step back and see how this technology could develop/. We discuss: - What is a Smart Contract? - How does it work? - Does it need a Legal/Regulatory framework to Operate? - App…
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18. Exploring the Bear cases for Bitcoin. What can go wrong?
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48:24
Episode 18. Exploring the Bear cases for Bitcoin There is a difference between dismissing Crypto and Bitcoin specifically out of hand and exploring the reasons for which these innovations may fail. We explore a number We discuss: Basic objections - Energy Consumption - Lack of Intrinsic Value - Governmental Interference Deeper Objections - How hype…
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Episode 17. Do you think NFT´s are nonsense? You should listen to this!
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Episode 17. Do you think NFT´s are nonsense? You should listen to this. We talk about NFT´s, what they are now, where they can go in the future, how to understand their value and the potential disruption they could create in different industries. We discuss: - What´s an NFT at its most basic - Different chains and markets where they live (Ethereum,…
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Episode 16. Bitcoin ATH Realized Cap And Two Trades You Should Know About
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35:34
Episode 16. Bitcoin ATH Realized Cap And Two Trades You Should Know About We talk about the news Bitcoin all time high realized Cap and about We discuss: - What Realized Cap on BTC tells us and Volume Weighted Average Price - The carry trade on BTC and the futures market - Why Futures based ETFs are creating an arbitrage opportunity in the Futures …
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Episode 15. Current Macro Economy and Bitcoin´s Role
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Episode 15. Understanding Our Current Macro Economy Environment And Bitcoin´s Role We talk about our current Macro environment. Where are we heading and why it ´s important to understand it. We provide our view of how things are changing and unfolding going into this new decade where Inflation will be playing a major role. We discuss: - Structural …
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Episode 14: What is Proof of Work? Why you should know about it
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37:27
We are often asked for a super basic, first principles explanation of Proof of Work. We make our best attempt to boil down PoW to its most basic points. We discuss: - What are the basics of Proof Of Work and how to think of it simply - What's a good analogy and how it can be thought at as a game - Some elegant aspects of PoW in the Bitcoin network …
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Episode 13. Hot Miners? Valuing Mining Stocks
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50:46
Episode 13. Hot Miners? Valuing Mining Stocks In this episode we discuss publicly-traded Cryptocurrency mining companies and their trading valuations. We talk about how to value these companies in a standardized industry based on similar metrics. We discuss: - $MARA, $RIOT, $HUT, $BITF primarily - How to think of their growth plans - How to think o…
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Episode 12: If you had 5 minutes to explain all of Bitcoin......
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31:51
We are often asked for a super basic, first principles introductory primer to Bitcoin. We make our best attempt to boil down the role of Bitcoin to its most basic points. We discuss: - Placing Digital currencies into financial history - Why networks are important in all aspects of our lives - Why now? What was needed to make Bitcoin and crypto poss…
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Episode 11 Bitcoin all time high. Where do we go from here?
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30:26
Bitcoin All Time High. Where do we go from here? We discuss the recent all-time high for Bitcoin and the possible road forward with institutional adoption. We also discuss: - GBTC, Spot and Futures-based ETFs and their differences - Bitcoin Mining - Possible outcomes with Spot ETF approval We do not provide financial advise in any form. All informa…
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Episode 10. Big News on Bitcoin ETF?
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Big News on Bitcoin ETF? We discuss the timing of the futures based Bitcoin ETF and it´s possible impact on the market. We also discuss like - The diffrent types of ETF´s - How this impact on retail and institutional investment - How it can influence Bitcoin´s price as a possible catalyst in a bull run We do not provide financial advise in any form…
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Episode 9: Is Bitcoin the Best Savings Instrument available for the masses?
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22:18
Is Bitcoin the Best Savings Instrument available for the masses? We discuss how the concept of savings it´s becoming more of a thing of the past and how monetary policies have changed the narrative of money. We also discuss ideas like - BItcoin from the point of view of Savings. - Investement vs savings approaches - Long term term defensive approac…
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Episode 8: New developments on Crypto regulation oultlook (SEC and Coinbase Bone of contention)
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38:24
Where we’re at with Crypto Regulations? We discuss Gary Gensler interview with Preet Prerara and the SEC ‘s roles and possible outcomes with Crypto regulations. We also discuss Coinbase case and the lack of clarity in regulations from the other side point of view. We do not provide financial advise in any form. All information is our opinion and fo…
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Episode 7: XRP and the next regulatory move in crypto.
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42:20
In this podcast we discuss one of the large caps crypto’s: XRP (Ripple) and the capricious regulatory winds currently blowing in Government. We discuss what’s XRP (Ripple). Parallel systems like SWIFT and their differences. We also discuss questions and issues like: 1 Why is XRP relevant? 2 What problem is it solving 3 Regulations in crypto 4 The S…
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Is Ethereum the next rocket ship? What is Ethereum?
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39:03
What is Ethereum? We talk about structural differences between Ethereum and Bitcoin: Philosophies, Blockhain differences, We also discuss questions and issues like: What are Tokens Different kinds of Blockhains Decentralization Security Proof of work vs proof stake We do not provide financial advise in any form. All information is our opinion and f…
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Episode 5: Let´s start talking about Bitcoin
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54:43
What is Bitcoin? We talk about the two actors in Bitcoin: Nodes and Miners and what t are the 2 rolls miners perform. We also discuss questions and issues like: What’s bitcoin used for? Bitcoin as a for of money Scarcity Transaction value Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation Bitcoin as a form of investment We do not provide financial advise in any …
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Episode 4: What problems is Crypto trying to solve?
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39:04
What problems is crypto solving? What are the differences between Crypto and the Traditional Finance world? We discuss what Crypto is trying to accomplish on a number of dimensions including: Fees Speed Security Custody Layer 2 and similar Products with a bit of a ETH vs, BTC sprinkled in there Our Public Twitter Follow List Which you can subscribe…
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Episode 3: Let's dip a toe in Crypto and explain the Basics!
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38:43
In this episode we dive into what ‘s crypto and what’s Blockchain technology. We discuss some of the properties of this fairly new technology compared to the traditional finance system. Topics we cover: -What’s crypto? Cryptography and Blockchain Technology. -Blochain properties: security, transparency and transactions. -Blockchain and Money as a s…
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Episode 2: Pre-Crypto, The Fiat system as we live it.
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1:10:38
In today's podcast we cover a variety of topics including: Defining the Fiat system we were all born into. The mentality of investors vs traders. Investing in high valuation markets. Social investing with a brief mention of $AMC, $GME and such. Can and will products and services be priced in Bitcoin? Forgive the audio reverb. It was not intentional…
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Our First Episode! What is Macro and why do I care?
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We cover investment and market topics from a basic point of view of two neighbors having a Friday beer discussing in lay man's terms Topics today - What is Macro? Why does it mean, why should I care? - What's happened since COVID-19 hit? - More musings about where we are generally in the markets - Not much Bitcoin and crypto yet Go to our Facebook …
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