The Diff is a newsletter exploring the technologies, companies, and trends that are making the future high-variance. Posts range from in-depth company profiles, applied financial theory, strategy breakdowns and macroeconomics.
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Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Topics covered: Finance, Venture Capital, Tech, AI, Crypto, and Industry Cycles The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co
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You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable ...
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We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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Patrick Blumenthal (@PatrickJBlum) interviews some of the world's leading economists, political scientists, and philosophers to discuss their ideas and what they mean for society, technology, and the economy.
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A podcast by 1517 Fund exploring subversive intellectuals, entrepreneurs, and thinkers across society.
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E44: Founder Mode, Uber’s Self-Driving Strategy, and Big Tech Skepticism
1:02:25
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This week, Byrne and Erik discuss the idea of taxing unrealized capital gains, networked nature of the finance industry, the strategic direction of Uber in autonomous vehicles, the merits of 'founder mode' and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ …
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E75: The Future of AI-Enabled Companies with Omar Shams, CEO of Mutable AI
1:09:28
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Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg are joined by Omar Shams, the founder of Mutable AI, for a deep dive into Omar’s great piece, The AI Organization. In this conversation, they explore the potential of AI to transform organizational productivity, the limitations of financial metrics in GDP, and AI's role in political processes and societal structures.…
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That time we accidentally created national healthcare infrastructure, with Dave Kasten
1:36:06
1:36:06
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1:36:06
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dave Kasten, to discuss their experiences building VaccinateCA, a charitable effort that collected, collated, and distributed vaccine distribution information during the COVID-19 pandemic. (If you Googled for the vaccine, the search results likely came from VaccinateCA’s data.) They cover the…
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What, Exactly are we Trying to Tax?
17:28
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - What, Exactly are we Trying to Tax? (11:40) - Correlations (12:33) - Reorganization (13:57) - Dating Copilots (15:24) - Thematic Investing (16:42) - Bid Density…
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E74: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei Talks Scaling Laws, AI Arms Races, and Radical Abundance
1:05:24
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Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith are joined by Dario Amodei, CEO and Co-founder of Anthropic. Dario talks about the economics of AI development, the comparative advantage of AI companies like Anthropic, AI safety, and his stance on California's SB 1047 bill. They also discuss the impacts of AI on global power dynamics, competition between the US and C…
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The mad science of drilling the earth with Austin Vernon
1:11:23
1:11:23
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1:11:23
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer, to discuss the technology and economics of fracking. Austin explains the evolution of drilling technology, the financial ecosystem supporting the oil industry – including the unique "doctor and lawyer money" funding model – and the complex interplay of mineral rights laws …
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E43: The Silicon Valley Canon, Smart Contracts, and the Yen Carry Trade
1:03:05
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1:03:05
On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the Silicon Valley Canon, impact of tech on traditional markets, the evolution of smart contracts, risks of currency carry trades and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ …
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Brian Streem on Building a Startup in Ukraine
27:04
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27:04
Brian Streem joins Patrick Blumenthal (@PatrickJBlum) to discuss building his startup in Ukraine and his thoughts on the conflict. Some highlights: Brian's company Vermeer and its vision-based navigation system for GPS-denied environments Brian's journey from film production and drone cinematography to defense technology The impact of Russian elect…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Mission and Variance (05:37) - Transitory, After All (07:38) - The Amazon Model (08:46) - Contextual Ads (09:57) - The PE and Sports Transition (11:24) - Credit and Insurance…
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E73: Brian Armstrong on Crypto in 2024, Politics, and Economic Freedom
1:02:33
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1:02:33
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, joins Erik Torenberg, Dan Romero, and Antonio Garcia Martinez on Moment of Zen in August 2024 to talk about the company's evolution and the broader crypto landscape. Armstrong discusses Coinbase's focus on product development, their efforts in Washington D.C., why he listens to Balaji Srinivasan, and strategies for…
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E42: Navigating Tech Antitrust and the Future of AI
1:03:15
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1:03:15
On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss tricky antitrust decisions, Balaji’s Network State, the dynamics of content moderation, and more. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on K…
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Balancing control and chaos: cybernetics, fraud, and modern organizations with Dan Davies
1:23:56
1:23:56
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dan Davies, author of Lying for Money, and The Unaccountability Machine. They discuss how cybernetics–the study of control and communication in complex systems–applies to modern organizations and decision-making. Dan and Patrick discuss how organizations change as they grow, financial fraud a…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Building the Oracles (07:07) - Price Discrimination in Media (07:53) - AI-Generated Propaganda (08:54) - War Economies, Redux (09:40) - Unbundling and Rebundling (10:26) - Attrition…
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E72: Eoghan McCabe on San Francisco, Tech Leadership, and Optimistic Media
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg sits down with Eoghan McCabe who opens up about his journey entering Silicon Valley, leading Intercom, shifting company culture, and becoming politically engaged. This episode offers a frank look at the complexities of building and scaling a tech company, coming back from personal and professional defeat,…
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Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer
1:25:18
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1:25:18
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Casey Handmer, rocket scientist turned CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey discusses the rapid advancements in solar power, the bureaucratic challenges of NASA, the incomprehensible success of SpaceX, and the evolving energy landscape. Casey touches on his experiences at JPL revealing how the organization’s fe…
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E41: Meta’s Open Source Strategy, Amazon’s Culture Drift, and What’s Going on With Character.AI
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This week, Byrne and Erik discuss Meta’s open source strategy, Google’s hiring of Character.AI’s CEO, the calculus behind the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and more. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabo…
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Our Surprisingly Capital-Abundant World
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Our Surprisingly Capital-Abundant World (05:58) - Audience Capture at Two Levels (06:58) - Does Crypto Add Value to Financial Markets? (09:21) - Continuation Funds, Club Deals, and the New E…
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E71: Marc Andreessen on Higher Education and Tech Culture
33:39
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In this episode of Upstream, we’re releasing an interview from 2021 with Marc Andreessen, Sriram Krishnan, and Aarthi Ramamurthy. They discuss the higher education system's inefficiencies, high costs and lack of competition, and explore innovative education models including cohort-based learning and unbundling education components. Marc shares pers…
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E40: The Age of the AI Organization
1:05:36
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1:05:36
This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg are joined by Omar Shams, the founder of Mutable AI, for a deep dive into Omar’s great piece, The AI Organization. In this conversation, they explore the potential of AI to transform organizational productivity, the limitations of financial metrics in GDP, and AI's role in political processes and societal …
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Bet on it: Zvi Mowshowitz on professional gambling, trading, and AI futures
1:26:22
1:26:22
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1:26:22
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) to discuss his wide-ranging career as a professional Magic: The Gathering player, sports gambler, equities trader, public intellectual on the covid-19 epidemic, and AI-focused journalist. They go into depth on how trading happens in less formal markets with lessons tha…
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P&L Beta: How Much You Keep out of How Much You Make
14:26
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - P&L Beta: How Much You Keep out of How Much You Make (06:51) - A Word From Our Sponsors (07:25) - Narratives and Volatility (08:14) - The New Acqui-hire Model (10:34) - A Good Trade (11:55) …
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E70: Katherine Boyle on Religion, Journalism, and Polarization
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In this episode of Upstream, we revisit a 2020 conversation with Erik Torenberg and Katherine Boyle exploring the intersection of religion and media in this tech-driven world. Katherine discusses her Washington Post article on how San Francisco's tech advancements have largely bypassed religious institutions. They explore the factors behind this ga…
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E39: Mental Models and Financial Infrastructure with Patrick McKenzie
1:03:12
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This week, Byrne Hobart is joined by Patrick McKenzie (patio11), host of the podcast Complex Systems, to discuss the complexity and endless fascination of financial infrastructures, the role of fraud in finance, talent spotting strategies and the importance of building networks. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: …
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Betting on the future via prediction markets, with Stephen Grugett of Manifold
51:57
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51:57
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philoso…
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Meta's Open-Source AI Economics, Re-Revisited
14:33
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Meta's Open-Source AI Economics, Re-Revisited (08:26) - A Word From Our Sponsors (08:29) - The Quantum Gambit (09:33) - Monetizing Volatility (10:45) - Banking and Credit (12:03) - How Long …
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E69: Balaji Srinivasan on the Rise of the Tech Counter Elites
1:43:50
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Last week, Erik Torenberg sat down with Balaji Srinivasan to discuss the vibe shift to the right in Silicon Valley, particularly after the attempted assassination of President Trump. This episode originally aired in Moment of Zen. They discuss the rising tensions between tech counter-elites and political incumbents, and why tech is at odds with "Am…
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E38: Resurgence of Prediction Markets, AI Adoption and Complex Financial Systems
1:01:14
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the resurgence of prediction markets, the balance of sophisticated vs. 'dumb' money, Biden's nomination odds and the impact of AI on software economics. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready t…
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Reporting on tech with Kelsey Piper
1:06:40
1:06:40
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1:06:40
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect. Kelsey recently reported on equity irregularities at OpenAI in May of 2024, leading to an improvement of their policies in this area. We discuss the social function of equity in the technology industry, why the tech industry and reporters have had a frosty …
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Software is the new Hardware
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Software is the new Hardware (07:18) - Vendor Risk (08:19) - Hardware and Software (09:44) - Compounding (10:41) - AI as an Interface (11:38) - Rotation…
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E68: Tyler Cowen on Talent, the Importance of Stamina, and Predicting Success
56:37
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This week on Upstream, we’re releasing a fascinating discussion with economist, professor, and bestselling author Tyler Cowen about how to find talented people. This was recorded in 2022 around the launch of his book 'Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Around the World' co-authored with Daniel Gross. Tyler and Erik discuss s…
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E37: 2024 Election Updates, Partisanship on Wikipedia, and Amazon’s Media Business
59:56
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59:56
On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss how the 2024 presidential election has changed, why Wikipedia’s partisanship problem is difficult to solve, and the strategy behind Amazon’s media business. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --…
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Writing the first draft of financial history with Byrne Hobart
50:45
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from sc…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Quality Factor (05:21) - Predictions (07:03) - The 4Chan of Crypto (07:54) - Adverse Selection (08:57) - AI and Ads (09:59) - Algorithmic Collusion…
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E67: A Deep Dive on René Girard with David Gornoski
1:24:57
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This week on Upstream, we're releasing a 2019 interview with David Gornoski and Erik Torenberg on the Village Global podcast, offering a deep dive into René Girard's Mimetic Theory, exploring its far-reaching societal impacts and surprising connections to ancient rituals and myths. They unpack the concept of mimetic desire and the profound influenc…
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E36: Meritocracy, Modeling Globalization, and The Burden of Knowledge
1:02:25
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive deep into David Graeber's controversial concept of 'Bullshit Jobs,' exploring its validity and impact. They also discuss the future of labor and employment in the era of AI, the intricate dynamics of globalization, and the complexities of corporate governance. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and exec…
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How the Smart Money teaches trading with Ricki Heicklen
1:40:15
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1:40:15
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Ricki Heicklen discuss Ricki’s innovative approaches to teaching trading. Trading is traditionally taught only by practitioners, to practitioners. The curricula that trading firms use are not published externally, to avoid empowering competitors. Ricki explains how she teaches trade mechanics, how markets and traders …
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“Bullshit Jobs” is a Terrible, Curiosity-Killing Concept
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25:23
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - “Bullshit Jobs” is a Terrible, Curiosity-Killing Concept (17:48) - A Word From Our Sponsors (18:30) - Sanction Economics (20:00) - Exiting (21:19) - Building Complements (22:18) - Shares and…
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E35: How to Be President, the Future of AI Celebrities, and Training Larger AI Models
1:00:17
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss the evolution of monetary systems, the economics of AI investments, and how AI is impacting the job market for junior software developers. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achi…
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E66: Noah Smith on 2024 Election Strategy, American Civil Service, and Cash Benefits
1:00:49
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In this week’s episode of Upstream, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss America's future. They cover the 2024 presidential race, the Chevron ruling from the Supreme Court, and the polarization of the education system. Noah and Erik also discuss where wokeness goes from here, and the potential outcomes of integrating more conservatives into the ci…
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The Supply Chain of Talent
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13:42
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Supply Chain of Talent (07:36) - Getting the Cycle Right (08:55) - Regulatory Arbitrage in E-Commerce (10:04) - Dry Powder and Meta-Stability (11:11) - The Split Market (12:00) - Transmi…
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E65: Bret Weinstein on Evolutionary Biology, Markets, Moral Progress, and More
1:17:00
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This week on Upstream, we’re airing an interview with evolutionary biologist Bret Weinstein from 2020, originally from the Village Global podcast. They discuss Weinstein's work on evolutionary trade-offs, the intersection of markets and moral progress, as well as future governance. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "UPSTREAM" for 20…
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E34: Chamath & Tinder, Threads API, and the Difficulties of Scaling AI Labs
1:04:41
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss a lesser-known Chamath Palihapitiya story, the index rebalancing trade as a postmodern part of finance, AI labs, crypto, and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. Byrne Hobart is hiring an associate! Check out the JD here: https://www.the…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Fertilizer and Toxins (07:50) - Margins (08:41) - A Better, Costlier Alexa (09:30) - Elasticity (11:08) - Counterparty Risk, Served Two Ways (12:20) - The Universal Denominator…
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E64: Richard Hanania on Trump's Genius, Antisemitism, and Election Predictions
1:13:44
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Richard Hanania discuss the surprising support for Donald Trump within Silicon Valley, contrasting it with earlier elections. They also explore reasons behind this shift, such as anti-wokeness sentiments, dissatisfaction with left economic policies, and the Democrats' anti-tech stance. beehiiv: Head t…
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E33: AI Therapy, 4chan, and Why Conferences Are Like Cities
1:06:30
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This week, writer Byrne Hobart and investor Erik Torenberg discuss the economics of conferences and cities, rise of meme stocks, future of coding in the age of AI and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplo…
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"Nobody Knows Anything": Backtests are Hard
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - "Nobody Knows Anything": Backtests are Hard (06:59) - The Economics of Hacking (07:43) - Lead Generation (09:30) - Adverse Selection (10:58) - Tip Economics (12:36) - First and Last Resort…
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E63: Balaji Srinivasan and Glen Weyl on Decentralized Governance, Politics, and History
1:20:29
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In 2019 Erik Torenberg sat down with Balaji Srinivasan and Glen Weyl to talk about the future of a decentralized world. They cover decentralized governance, politics, voting, and more. This conversation was recorded orginally for Village Global's Venture Stories. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogx…
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E32: Populism, Elites, and Preparing for AGI
56:43
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss populist cycles, why billionaires buy media companies, how to invest if you think AGI is coming soon, and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogx…
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The Bid/Ask View of Who Gets to Raise and What Gets Traded
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Bid Ask View of Who Gets to Raise and What Gets Traded (06:40) - A Word From Our Sponsors (07:38) - Privacy and Insurance (08:59) - AI Fragmentation (09:40) - Too Central to Fail? (10:45…
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E62: Mike Solana on Thinking Freely and What Tech Means for Culture
1:12:00
1:12:00
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1:12:00
In 2020 Erik Torenberg sat down with Mike Solana, then VP at Founders Fund (now the Editor In Chief of Pirate Wires) to go deeper into his commitment to controversial ideas and freedom. He discusses the dynamics of America's culture wars, debating freedom vs. equality, the resurgence of Marxism, and the roots of anti-American sentiment. This conver…
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