E64: Why Estimation In Game Dev Is So Hard

Building Better Games

In this episode of "Building Better Games," hosts Benjamin Carcich and Aaron Smith dive into the complex and often frustrating topic of estimation and planning in game development. They address the challenges, misconceptions, and emotional reactions surrounding estimation, drawing on their extensive experience in the industry. The episode also covers current trends in game development, including the ongoing issue of layoffs and economic pressures affecting studios.

Key Points:

1. Challenges of Estimation:

   • Estimation is a universal pain point in game development, often leading to frustration and cynicism.
   • The misconception that precise estimates can accurately predict future outcomes is widespread and problematic.

2. The Importance of Flexibility:

   • Effective estimation requires flexibility in scope, time, resources, and priorities.
   • Establishing clear levers that can be pulled to adjust plans as needed is crucial for successful project management.

3. Relative Estimation and Calibration:

   • Estimations should focus on accuracy rather than precision, using confidence intervals to provide a more realistic view of project timelines.
   • Techniques like throughput and relative estimation help teams make faster and more reliable predictions.

4. Prioritization and Learning:

   • Estimations are valuable for prioritizing tasks and understanding the relative importance of different features.
   • Tracking past performance and learning from previous estimates can improve future predictions and planning.

5. Balancing Creativity and Control:

   • Overly rigid plans can stifle creativity and lead to subpar games.
   • Creating systems that allow developers to exercise their judgment and creativity is essential for producing high-quality games.

6. Trust and Communication:

   • Building trust between managers and teams is vital for effective estimation and planning.
   • Clear communication about the realities of project timelines and the inherent uncertainties in game development is necessary.

7. Tools and Techniques:

   • Various estimation techniques, including ideal days, story points, and throughput, offer different benefits and can be tailored to specific project needs.
   • The hosts emphasize the importance of choosing the right method for the context and being willing to adapt as new information emerges.

By addressing these points, Ben and Aaron provide valuable insights into how to navigate the complexities of estimation and planning in game development, ultimately helping studios ship better games with less stress and frustration.

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