Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case

Forward Guidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket

(02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far

(06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect

(08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises

(11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can

(14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?

(21:43) VanEck ad

(22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things

(25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?

(26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy

(29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market

(32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)

(37:16) Macro Carry Strategies

(42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)

(44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.