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#219 Campbell Harvey: End of Boom-Bust Cycle? | Will Yield Curve Show First False Signal?
Manage episode 455139280 series 3510102
Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth.
Links:
DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey
Timestamps:
00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey
00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis
04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles
06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy
07:13 Role of technological innovation
11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation
14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential
16:09 Post-election growth outlook
24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges
28:16 Social Security sustainability issues
32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion
40:11 Impact of technological innovations
45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique
50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy
54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions
59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects
220 jaksoa
Manage episode 455139280 series 3510102
Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth.
Links:
DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey
Timestamps:
00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey
00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis
04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles
06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy
07:13 Role of technological innovation
11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation
14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential
16:09 Post-election growth outlook
24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges
28:16 Social Security sustainability issues
32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion
40:11 Impact of technological innovations
45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique
50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy
54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions
59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects
220 jaksoa
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