Macro Mondays | REPLAY | Scott Bessent’s Impact and Market Shifts | 25|11|24

World of Oil Derivatives

This week brought a flurry of critical developments, with Scott Bessent named as Treasury Secretary, signaling potential shifts in U.S. fiscal policy. Known for his bond market expertise, Bessent’s appointment caused gold prices to dip and led to fresh buying of bonds with 10-year yields falling 7bp on Monday's open. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $99,500, reflecting growing crypto optimism under the new administration.
In economic data, the U.S. saw mixed PMI numbers, with services surging to 57 (est 55) while manufacturing stagnated at 48.8 (est 48.8). Unemployment trends raised concerns, with continuing claims rising to a three-year high. However, U.S. corporate bond spreads hit record lows, pointing to potential bubble risks.
European data continues to disappoint, with German and French PMIs remaining weak. The Eurozone 5yr5yr forward inflation swap fell to 2%, sparking discussions of deflationary pressures. Meanwhile, UK retail sales dropped, and CPI rose to 2.3%, stirring market concerns.
Key events for the week include:
Tuesday: Fed minutes
Wednesday: U.S. PCE price index, Q3 GDP, Durable goods orders
Thursday: Eurozone inflation, Canadian GDP, Thanksgiving holiday
Friday: U.S. PMIs, Consumer sentiment, Eurozone services PMI, UK retail sales
Saturday: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data
#MacroMonday #EconomicAnalysis #ScottBessent #PMIData #Crypto #Bitcoin #TreasurySecretary #GoldPrices #USEconomy #EuropeEconomy #Deflation #Inflation #RateCuts #BondMarket #MarketTrends #OilPrices #FedMinutes #GDP #PMI #ConsumerSentiment #MiddleEastTensions #ChinaData #UKRetailSales #Eurozone
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