The Recession that Didn’t Bark

Notes on the Week Ahead

A famous Sherlock Holmes story concerns the abduction of a race horse and a guard dog that didn’t bark. For those who haven’t read the story, I’ll skip over the reason for the dog’s silence. The point is he didn’t bark – no alarm was raised – no actions were taken - and the horse disappeared.

Entering the fourth quarter of 2022, the U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of recession. However, it is a recession that has been delayed and potentially softened by an excess demand for labor, the lack of over-building in the most cyclical sectors of the economy and healthy bank balance sheets.