The Slope of the Inflation Slide

Notes on the Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve maintains strict rules prohibiting FOMC members from commenting on the economic outlook or monetary policy in the 10 days preceding an FOMC meeting or on the following day. Thereafter they are free to speak and over the last two weeks many have opined on both subjects. Their opinions show remarkable unanimity. They are focused on bringing inflation back down to their 2% target. They acknowledge the uncertainty in the economic outlook, and, as a consequence, they profess themselves to be “data dependent” and frequently quote, with furrowed brows, the year-over-year increases in CPI and consumption deflator measures of inflation.